2026 Week 1 result
What was published before kickoff, beside what actually happened. These numbers were frozen at 2026-09-09 17:15 and have not been recomputed since.
Graded
16
of 16 games
Winner picked
56%
market 75%
Margin MAE
12.97
market 11.44
ATS
5-10-1 · 33.3%
52.4% breaks even
Game by game
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Pick | Close | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 |  NE at  SEA |
19.9–23.4 | 10–13 | SEA HIT | +3.0 | PUSH |
| 09-10 |  SF at  LA |
22.9–30.3 | 27–7 | LA MISS | +3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  ARI at  LAC |
18.6–26.5 | 26–14 | LAC MISS | +9.5 | WIN |
| 09-13 |  ATL at  PIT |
20.3–21.8 | 13–20 | PIT HIT | +3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  BAL at  IND |
20.5–23.7 | 41–23 | IND MISS | -3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  BUF at  HOU |
22.6–23.6 | 36–31 | HOU MISS | -1.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  CHI at  CAR |
26.0–21.2 | 59–37 | CHI HIT | -3.0 | WIN |
| 09-13 |  CLE at  JAX |
15.1–26.3 | 10–34 | JAX HIT | +8.5 | WIN |
| 09-13 |  DAL at  NYG |
24.8–25.4 | 20–28 | NYG HIT | -3.0 | WIN |
| 09-13 |  GB at  MIN |
21.7–20.7 | 22–39 | GB MISS | +1.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  MIA at  LV |
21.2–21.2 | 13–27 | LV HIT | +3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  NO at  DET |
20.0–27.4 | 30–31 | DET HIT | +7.0 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  NYJ at  TEN |
20.2–21.1 | 23–10 | TEN MISS | +1.5 | WIN |
| 09-13 |  TB at  CIN |
22.9–23.6 | 27–33 | CIN HIT | +3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-13 |  WAS at  PHI |
16.1–25.9 | 22–24 | PHI HIT | +5.5 | LOSS |
| 09-14 |  DEN at  KC |
23.4–20.2 | 10–31 | DEN MISS | +2.5 | LOSS |
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.
Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 20, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.