2026 results

Every projection published before kickoff, graded against the final score and the closing market. Frozen at publication — these are not re-fitted after the fact.

Graded

2026 games completed

Winner picked

53.8%

market 61.3%

Margin MAE

9.99

market 9.41

ATS

40-49-4 · 44.9%

52.4% breaks even

O/U

40-53 · 43.0%

totals

90% interval

91.4%

target 90%

Week 1 56% winners · ATS 5-10 · margin MAE 13.0

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
09-09	NE at SEA	19.9–23.4	10–13	SEA HIT	+3.0	PUSH
09-10	SF at LA	22.9–30.3	27–7	LA MISS	+3.5	LOSS
09-13	ARI at LAC	18.6–26.5	26–14	LAC MISS	+9.5	WIN
09-13	ATL at PIT	20.3–21.8	13–20	PIT HIT	+3.5	LOSS
09-13	BAL at IND	20.5–23.7	41–23	IND MISS	-3.5	LOSS
09-13	BUF at HOU	22.6–23.6	36–31	HOU MISS	-1.5	LOSS
09-13	CHI at CAR	26.0–21.2	59–37	CHI HIT	-3.0	WIN
09-13	CLE at JAX	15.1–26.3	10–34	JAX HIT	+8.5	WIN
09-13	DAL at NYG	24.8–25.4	20–28	NYG HIT	-3.0	WIN
09-13	GB at MIN	21.7–20.7	22–39	GB MISS	+1.5	LOSS
09-13	MIA at LV	21.2–21.2	13–27	LV HIT	+3.5	LOSS
09-13	NO at DET	20.0–27.4	30–31	DET HIT	+7.0	LOSS
09-13	NYJ at TEN	20.2–21.1	23–10	TEN MISS	+1.5	WIN
09-13	TB at CIN	22.9–23.6	27–33	CIN HIT	+3.5	LOSS
09-13	WAS at PHI	16.1–25.9	22–24	PHI HIT	+5.5	LOSS
09-14	DEN at KC	23.4–20.2	10–31	DEN MISS	+2.5	LOSS

Week 2 56% winners · ATS 8-8 · margin MAE 12.6

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
09-17	DET at BUF	24.8–25.8	31–41	BUF HIT	+4.5	LOSS
09-20	CAR at ATL	18.1–24.7	34–3	ATL MISS	-1.5	LOSS
09-20	CIN at HOU	19.6–27.1	20–6	HOU MISS	+3.0	LOSS
09-20	CLE at TB	17.5–23.5	23–19	TB MISS	+8.5	WIN
09-20	GB at NYJ	26.7–18.4	20–17	GB HIT	-4.5	LOSS
09-20	IND at KC	20.3–24.1	30–33	KC HIT	+6.5	WIN
09-20	JAX at DEN	22.4–21.9	13–20	JAX MISS	+2.5	LOSS
09-20	LV at LAC	18.1–24.4	26–14	LAC MISS	+7.0	WIN
09-20	MIA at SF	19.6–25.9	13–35	SF HIT	+13.5	LOSS
09-20	MIN at CHI	21.4–23.6	9–3	CHI MISS	+5.5	WIN
09-20	NO at BAL	19.6–23.5	24–17	BAL MISS	+8.5	WIN
09-20	PHI at TEN	25.3–17.1	24–20	PHI HIT	-7.0	LOSS
09-20	PIT at NE	17.4–25.2	3–20	NE HIT	+5.5	WIN
09-20	SEA at ARI	26.1–18.6	31–7	SEA HIT	-4.5	WIN
09-20	WAS at DAL	21.2–27.3	20–37	DAL HIT	+3.5	WIN
09-21	NYG at LA	22.4–28.9	6–28	LA HIT	+7.0	LOSS

Week 3 62% winners · ATS 7-8 · margin MAE 8.8

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
09-24	ATL at GB	18.0–25.4	35–14	GB MISS	+6.0	LOSS
09-27	ARI at SF	20.4–29.0	30–36	SF HIT	+8.5	LOSS
09-27	BAL at DAL	24.7–25.5	34–31	DAL MISS	-3.0	PUSH
09-27	CAR at CLE	20.5–20.1	18–21	CAR MISS	-2.5	WIN
09-27	CIN at PIT	21.8–24.0	27–30	PIT HIT	-3.5	WIN
09-27	HOU at IND	22.1–22.9	17–19	IND HIT	-2.5	WIN
09-27	KC at MIA	23.6–19.2	24–10	KC HIT	-11.5	LOSS
09-27	LAC at BUF	19.3–26.6	16–24	BUF HIT	+7.0	WIN
09-27	LA at DEN	24.2–23.4	26–30	LA MISS	-1.5	WIN
09-27	LV at NO	17.0–26.2	35–27	NO MISS	+3.0	LOSS
09-27	MIN at TB	20.9–20.1	23–16	MIN HIT	-1.5	LOSS
09-27	NE at JAX	21.4–22.8	6–35	JAX HIT	+3.0	LOSS
09-27	NYJ at DET	18.1–30.0	24–31	DET HIT	+6.5	WIN
09-27	SEA at WAS	25.2–17.6	31–33	SEA MISS	-7.0	LOSS
09-27	TEN at NYG	21.3–23.5	7–12	NYG HIT	+3.5	LOSS
09-28	PHI at CHI	22.3–25.3	7–27	CHI HIT	-3.0	WIN

Week 4 62% winners · ATS 8-7 · margin MAE 6.6

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
10-01	PIT at CLE	20.9–19.9	24–27	PIT MISS	-2.5	WIN
10-04	ARI at NYG	21.5–24.9	24–36	NYG HIT	-1.5	WIN
10-04	DAL at HOU	23.9–26.7	34–30	HOU MISS	+2.5	LOSS
10-04	DEN at SF	22.1–25.4	14–24	SF HIT	+3.0	WIN
10-04	DET at CAR	26.9–19.9	26–32	DET MISS	-3.5	LOSS
10-04	GB at TB	23.2–20.8	17–14	GB HIT	-3.5	WIN
10-04	IND at WAS	24.0–21.0	30–13	IND HIT	-3.5	LOSS
10-04	JAX at CIN	27.0–21.7	22–17	JAX HIT	+2.5	WIN
10-04	KC at LV	23.9–19.6	30–27	KC HIT	-4.5	WIN
10-04	LAC at SEA	16.6–25.9	23–30	SEA HIT	+7.0	PUSH
10-04	LA at PHI	22.9–23.7	24–20	PHI MISS	-2.5	LOSS
10-04	MIA at MIN	15.0–25.9	10–15	MIN HIT	+10.5	LOSS
10-04	NE at BUF	21.0–23.3	29–26	BUF MISS	+7.0	WIN
10-04	NYJ at CHI	18.2–28.3	12–23	CHI HIT	+3.0	WIN
10-04	TEN at BAL	14.9–27.8	18–24	BAL HIT	+11.5	LOSS
10-05	ATL at NO	19.9–23.6	45–24	NO MISS	+3.0	LOSS

Week 5 40% winners · ATS 6-8 · margin MAE 10.6

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
10-08	TB at DAL	21.7–27.6	24–16	DAL MISS	+9.5	WIN
10-11	BAL at ATL	22.4–22.7	30–23	ATL MISS	-2.5	LOSS
10-11	CHI at GB	23.7–24.8	7–31	GB HIT	-3.0	WIN
10-11	CIN at MIA	26.3–19.8	31–24	CIN HIT	-7.0	PUSH
10-11	CLE at NYJ	21.7–20.7	12–17	CLE MISS	+2.5	LOSS
10-11	DEN at LAC	19.2–22.5	23–17	LAC MISS	-3.5	LOSS
10-11	DET at ARI	30.0–22.6	45–21	DET HIT	-4.5	WIN
10-11	HOU at TEN	24.3–19.0	26–3	HOU HIT	-7.0	LOSS
10-11	IND at PIT	21.6–20.8	22–34	IND MISS	+2.5	LOSS
10-11	LV at NE	17.2–25.3	17–45	NE HIT	+3.5	WIN
10-11	MIN at NO	20.2–21.0	23–13	NO MISS	-1.5	LOSS
10-11	NYG at WAS	20.5–23.0	27–27	WAS MISS	+3.0	WIN
10-11	PHI at JAX	17.0–26.0	17–19	JAX HIT	+7.0	LOSS
10-11	SF at SEA	20.7–25.2	32–29	SEA MISS	+3.0	LOSS
10-12	BUF at LA	24.7–26.6	37–34	LA MISS	+2.5	WIN

Week 6 43% winners · ATS 6-8 · margin MAE 8.2

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
10-15	SEA at DEN	21.9–19.7	14–17	SEA MISS	-2.5	WIN
10-18	ARI at LA	21.0–32.3	18–16	LA MISS	+13.5	WIN
10-18	BAL at CLE	25.3–17.6	10–13	BAL MISS	-4.5	LOSS
10-18	BUF at LV	25.9–20.2	33–30	BUF HIT	-6.0	WIN
10-18	CAR at PHI	19.4–22.1	25–14	PHI MISS	+1.5	LOSS
10-18	CHI at ATL	21.9–24.7	31–23	ATL MISS	-3.0	LOSS
10-18	DAL at GB	23.0–26.5	13–23	GB HIT	+1.5	WIN
10-18	HOU at JAX	19.3–26.1	34–31	JAX MISS	+3.0	LOSS
10-18	LAC at KC	17.5–24.4	6–22	KC HIT	+8.5	LOSS
10-18	NO at NYG	22.5–21.2	34–27	NO HIT	+1.5	WIN
10-18	NYJ at NE	16.3–27.0	19–26	NE HIT	+7.5	LOSS
10-18	PIT at TB	20.7–21.3	26–19	TB MISS	-3.0	LOSS
10-18	TEN at IND	18.4–24.8	26–20	IND MISS	+7.0	WIN
10-19	WAS at SF	18.3–27.2	17–23	SF HIT	+7.5	LOSS

Download 2026 results (CSV)

Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.

Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 20, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.