2026 Week 5 result

What was published before kickoff, beside what actually happened. These numbers were frozen at 2026-10-06 08:14 and have not been recomputed since.

Graded

of 15 games

Winner picked

40%

market 67%

Margin MAE

10.64

market 10.10

ATS

6-8-1 · 42.9%

52.4% breaks even

Game by game

Date	Matchup	Projected	Final	Pick	Close	ATS
10-08	TB at DAL	21.7–27.6	24–16	DAL MISS	+9.5	WIN
10-11	BAL at ATL	22.4–22.7	30–23	ATL MISS	-2.5	LOSS
10-11	CHI at GB	23.7–24.8	7–31	GB HIT	-3.0	WIN
10-11	CIN at MIA	26.3–19.8	31–24	CIN HIT	-7.0	PUSH
10-11	CLE at NYJ	21.7–20.7	12–17	CLE MISS	+2.5	LOSS
10-11	DEN at LAC	19.2–22.5	23–17	LAC MISS	-3.5	LOSS
10-11	DET at ARI	30.0–22.6	45–21	DET HIT	-4.5	WIN
10-11	HOU at TEN	24.3–19.0	26–3	HOU HIT	-7.0	LOSS
10-11	IND at PIT	21.6–20.8	22–34	IND MISS	+2.5	LOSS
10-11	LV at NE	17.2–25.3	17–45	NE HIT	+3.5	WIN
10-11	MIN at NO	20.2–21.0	23–13	NO MISS	-1.5	LOSS
10-11	NYG at WAS	20.5–23.0	27–27	WAS MISS	+3.0	WIN
10-11	PHI at JAX	17.0–26.0	17–19	JAX HIT	+7.0	LOSS
10-11	SF at SEA	20.7–25.2	32–29	SEA MISS	+3.0	LOSS
10-12	BUF at LA	24.7–26.6	37–34	LA MISS	+2.5	WIN

Download the projections as published (CSV)

Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.

Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 20, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.