2026 Week 4 result
What was published before kickoff, beside what actually happened. These numbers were frozen at 2026-09-29 07:47 and have not been recomputed since.
Graded
16
of 16 games
Winner picked
62%
market 56%
Margin MAE
6.64
market 7.47
ATS
8-7-1 · 53.3%
52.4% breaks even
Game by game
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Pick | Close | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 |  PIT at  CLE |
20.9–19.9 | 24–27 | PIT MISS | -2.5 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  ARI at  NYG |
21.5–24.9 | 24–36 | NYG HIT | -1.5 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  DAL at  HOU |
23.9–26.7 | 34–30 | HOU MISS | +2.5 | LOSS |
| 10-04 |  DEN at  SF |
22.1–25.4 | 14–24 | SF HIT | +3.0 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  DET at  CAR |
26.9–19.9 | 26–32 | DET MISS | -3.5 | LOSS |
| 10-04 |  GB at  TB |
23.2–20.8 | 17–14 | GB HIT | -3.5 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  IND at  WAS |
24.0–21.0 | 30–13 | IND HIT | -3.5 | LOSS |
| 10-04 |  JAX at  CIN |
27.0–21.7 | 22–17 | JAX HIT | +2.5 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  KC at  LV |
23.9–19.6 | 30–27 | KC HIT | -4.5 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  LAC at  SEA |
16.6–25.9 | 23–30 | SEA HIT | +7.0 | PUSH |
| 10-04 |  LA at  PHI |
22.9–23.7 | 24–20 | PHI MISS | -2.5 | LOSS |
| 10-04 |  MIA at  MIN |
15.0–25.9 | 10–15 | MIN HIT | +10.5 | LOSS |
| 10-04 |  NE at  BUF |
21.0–23.3 | 29–26 | BUF MISS | +7.0 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  NYJ at  CHI |
18.2–28.3 | 12–23 | CHI HIT | +3.0 | WIN |
| 10-04 |  TEN at  BAL |
14.9–27.8 | 18–24 | BAL HIT | +11.5 | LOSS |
| 10-05 |  ATL at  NO |
19.9–23.6 | 45–24 | NO MISS | +3.0 | LOSS |
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.
Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 20, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.