2026 Week 3 result
What was published before kickoff, beside what actually happened. These numbers were frozen at 2026-09-22 09:32 and have not been recomputed since.
Graded
16
of 16 games
Winner picked
62%
market 50%
Margin MAE
8.79
market 8.22
ATS
7-8-1 · 46.7%
52.4% breaks even
Game by game
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Pick | Close | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 |  ATL at  GB |
18.0–25.4 | 35–14 | GB MISS | +6.0 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  ARI at  SF |
20.4–29.0 | 30–36 | SF HIT | +8.5 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  BAL at  DAL |
24.7–25.5 | 34–31 | DAL MISS | -3.0 | PUSH |
| 09-27 |  CAR at  CLE |
20.5–20.1 | 18–21 | CAR MISS | -2.5 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  CIN at  PIT |
21.8–24.0 | 27–30 | PIT HIT | -3.5 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  HOU at  IND |
22.1–22.9 | 17–19 | IND HIT | -2.5 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  KC at  MIA |
23.6–19.2 | 24–10 | KC HIT | -11.5 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  LAC at  BUF |
19.3–26.6 | 16–24 | BUF HIT | +7.0 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  LA at  DEN |
24.2–23.4 | 26–30 | LA MISS | -1.5 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  LV at  NO |
17.0–26.2 | 35–27 | NO MISS | +3.0 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  MIN at  TB |
20.9–20.1 | 23–16 | MIN HIT | -1.5 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  NE at  JAX |
21.4–22.8 | 6–35 | JAX HIT | +3.0 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  NYJ at  DET |
18.1–30.0 | 24–31 | DET HIT | +6.5 | WIN |
| 09-27 |  SEA at  WAS |
25.2–17.6 | 31–33 | SEA MISS | -7.0 | LOSS |
| 09-27 |  TEN at  NYG |
21.3–23.5 | 7–12 | NYG HIT | +3.5 | LOSS |
| 09-28 |  PHI at  CHI |
22.3–25.3 | 7–27 | CHI HIT | -3.0 | WIN |
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.
Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 20, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.