2026 Week 2 Projections

16 games · 10,000 simulations each · generated Sep 15, 2026
DateMatchupQBs Proj score Favorite Home win Total Market Edge
09-17 DET DET at BUF BUF Jared Goff / Josh Allen 24.8 – 25.8 BUF 1.0 51% 50.6 +4.5 -3.5
09-20 CAR CAR at ATL ATL Bryce Young / Michael Penix Jr. 18.1 – 24.7 ATL 6.6 70% 42.8 -1.5 +8.1⚡ FADE
09-20 CIN CIN at HOU HOU Joe Burrow / C.J. Stroud 19.6 – 27.1 HOU 7.5 71% 46.7 +3.0 +4.5
09-20 CLE CLE at TB TB Deshaun Watson / Baker Mayfield 17.5 – 23.5 TB 6.0 69% 41.0 +8.5 -2.5
09-20 GB GB at NYJ NYJ Jordan Love / Geno Smith 26.7 – 18.4 GB 8.2 27% 45.1 -4.5 -3.7
09-20 IND IND at KC KC Daniel Jones / Patrick Mahomes 20.3 – 24.1 KC 3.8 60% 44.5 +6.5 -2.7
09-20 JAX JAX at DEN DEN Trevor Lawrence / Bo Nix 22.4 – 21.9 JAX 0.5 48% 44.3 +2.5 -3.0⚡ FADE
09-20 LV LV at LAC LAC Kirk Cousins / Justin Herbert 18.1 – 24.4 LAC 6.3 68% 42.5 +7.0 -0.7
09-20 MIA MIA at SF SF Malik Willis / Brock Purdy 19.6 – 25.9 SF 6.3 67% 45.5 +13.5 -7.2
09-20 MIN MIN at CHI CHI Kyler Murray / Caleb Williams 21.4 – 23.6 CHI 2.2 54% 45.0 +5.5 -3.3
09-20 NO NO at BAL BAL Tyler Shough / Lamar Jackson 19.6 – 23.5 BAL 3.9 59% 43.1 +8.5 -4.6
09-20 PHI PHI at TEN TEN Jalen Hurts / Cam Ward 25.3 – 17.1 PHI 8.3 27% 42.4 -7.0 -1.3
09-20 PIT PIT at NE NE Aaron Rodgers / Drake Maye 17.4 – 25.2 NE 7.8 73% 42.6 +5.5 +2.3
09-20 SEA SEA at ARI ARI Sam Darnold / Jacoby Brissett 26.1 – 18.6 SEA 7.5 30% 44.7 -4.5 -3.0
09-20 WAS WAS at DAL DAL Jayden Daniels / Dak Prescott 21.2 – 27.3 DAL 6.1 68% 48.6 +3.5 +2.6
09-21 NYG NYG at LA LA Jaxson Dart / Matthew Stafford 22.4 – 28.9 LA 6.5 67% 51.4 +7.0 -0.5

Market is the spread from the home team's perspective — positive means the home side is favored. Edge is the model's margin minus the market's; FADE marks the games where the two disagree on the winner.

DET at BUF

DET at BUF

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-17 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -21 to +23
BUF Win Prob
50.7%
DET Win Prob
49.3%
Projected
25–25
Exp. Margin
+1.0
Exp. Total
50.6
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesBUFDET
EPA / play+0.127 ◀+0.084
QB EPA / att+0.157+0.195 ◀
Avg air yards7.9 yds ◀6.6 yds
Avg YAC5.9 yds6.3 yds ◀
Deep pass rate18.6% ◀14.2%
Pass rate48.0%54.8% ◀
Shotgun rate49.2%50.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.039 ◀-0.051
3rd down conv %45.3% ◀39.2%
Red zone TD %22.5%23.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.2%1.4% ◀
QB comp %63.8%64.3% ◀
QB YPA7.5 yds7.6 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.8%5.3% ◀
YPC (rush)4.8 yds ◀4.7 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.171 ◀+0.057
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesBUFDET
EPA allowed / play-0.022 ◀-0.020
Air yds allowed7.6 yds ◀9.7 yds
YPC allowed4.7 yds4.4 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.7 yds4.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.2% ◀20.9%
Sack rate gen5.7%7.8% ◀
TO forced rate2.3% ◀1.9%
RZ TD rate allowed19.8% ◀20.0%
Trending — Last 8 GamesBUFDET
OFF EPA/play+0.171 ◀+0.057
QB EPA/att+0.160 ◀+0.135
Rush EPA/carry+0.049 ◀-0.046
DEF EPA allowed+0.003 ◀+0.059
Avg air yards8.1 yds ◀6.4 yds
3rd down conv%46.6% ◀42.1%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀1.7%
Pass EPA/att+0.228 ◀+0.127
Margin Model DriversBUFDET
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.32 pts▲ BUF
pdm_matchup_17-0.84 pts▼ DET
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.79 pts▼ DET
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.66 pts▲ BUF
Sack rate gen edge-0.52 pts▼ DET
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.51 pts▼ DET
Turnover rate edge-0.51 pts▼ DET
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.39 pts▼ DET
run_left_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ BUF
home_pass_rate_17+0.34 pts▲ BUF
Rest
4d
 
4d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+4.5
O/U
53.5
CAR at ATL

CAR at ATL

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +29
ATL Win Prob
69.9%
CAR Win Prob
30.1%
Projected
25–18
Exp. Margin
+6.6
Exp. Total
42.8
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesATLCAR
EPA / play-0.049-0.029 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.057 ◀-0.023
Avg air yards7.5 yds ◀6.9 yds
Avg YAC5.7 yds ◀5.1 yds
Deep pass rate19.0% ◀15.6%
Pass rate51.6%51.7% ◀
Shotgun rate78.6% ◀65.1%
Rush EPA / carry-0.050-0.044 ◀
3rd down conv %30.9%34.6% ◀
Red zone TD %26.7% ◀21.1%
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.3%
QB comp %58.4%59.8% ◀
QB YPA7.2 yds ◀6.2 yds
Sack rate allowed5.1% ◀5.9%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.3 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.060-0.022 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesATLCAR
EPA allowed / play-0.033 ◀+0.093
Air yds allowed8.7 yds8.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.4 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed18.5% ◀18.9%
Sack rate gen8.6% ◀5.4%
TO forced rate2.3% ◀2.2%
RZ TD rate allowed17.5% ◀21.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesATLCAR
OFF EPA/play-0.060-0.022 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.012+0.024 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.071-0.063 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.073 ◀+0.104
Avg air yards6.4 yds7.3 yds ◀
3rd down conv%30.6%33.6% ◀
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.7%
Pass EPA/att-0.078+0.023 ◀
Margin Model DriversATLCAR
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.44 pts▲ ATL
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.92 pts▲ ATL
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.88 pts▲ ATL
3rd & medium conv edge-0.72 pts▼ CAR
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.56 pts▼ CAR
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.43 pts▲ ATL
Pass EPA/att edge (L8)+0.41 pts▲ ATL
psl_matchup_17-0.32 pts▼ CAR
Sack rate gen edge+0.26 pts▲ ATL
psm_matchup_17-0.19 pts▼ CAR
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-1.5
O/U
44.5
CIN at HOU

CIN at HOU

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +30
HOU Win Prob
70.7%
CIN Win Prob
29.3%
Projected
27–19
Exp. Margin
+7.5
Exp. Total
46.7
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUCIN
EPA / play-0.008 ◀-0.016
QB EPA / att+0.052+0.118 ◀
Avg air yards8.3 yds ◀7.3 yds
Avg YAC4.5 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate16.4% ◀14.8%
Pass rate54.2%61.8% ◀
Shotgun rate61.0%81.8% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.100+0.029 ◀
3rd down conv %41.2%43.7% ◀
Red zone TD %26.9%30.8% ◀
Turnover rate1.5% ◀2.4%
QB comp %60.0%65.2% ◀
QB YPA6.8 yds6.8 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.4% ◀4.8%
YPC (rush)3.8 yds4.2 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.051+0.026 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUCIN
EPA allowed / play-0.170 ◀+0.114
Air yds allowed8.5 yds7.6 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀5.3 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀7.2 yds
Deep rate allowed20.6%15.9% ◀
Sack rate gen7.7% ◀6.7%
TO forced rate3.2% ◀2.4%
RZ TD rate allowed27.4%22.7% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesHOUCIN
OFF EPA/play-0.051+0.026 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.023+0.100 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.116-0.005 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.151 ◀-0.036
Avg air yards8.1 yds ◀7.3 yds
3rd down conv%44.3%48.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.2%1.7% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.008+0.046 ◀
Margin Model DriversHOUCIN
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.94 pts▲ HOU
run_mid_matchup_17+1.15 pts▲ HOU
run_left_matchup_17+0.91 pts▲ HOU
psl_matchup_17+0.80 pts▲ HOU
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.63 pts▲ HOU
DEF EPA allowed edge (L17)+0.54 pts▲ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.48 pts▼ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.44 pts▼ CIN
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.41 pts▼ CIN
away_psm_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ HOU
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
46.5
CLE at TB

CLE at TB

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -15 to +27
TB Win Prob
68.8%
CLE Win Prob
31.1%
Projected
23–17
Exp. Margin
+6.0
Exp. Total
41.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesTBCLE
EPA / play-0.018 ◀-0.204
QB EPA / att-0.020 ◀-0.159
Avg air yards7.7 yds ◀7.1 yds
Avg YAC5.9 yds ◀5.6 yds
Deep pass rate17.8% ◀15.0%
Pass rate52.7% ◀52.7%
Shotgun rate64.5%66.9% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.001 ◀-0.043
3rd down conv %41.2% ◀30.5%
Red zone TD %19.5% ◀16.5%
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.6%
QB comp %59.9% ◀54.3%
QB YPA6.5 yds ◀5.6 yds
Sack rate allowed6.3% ◀8.5%
YPC (rush)4.0 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.066 ◀-0.197
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesTBCLE
EPA allowed / play+0.018-0.066 ◀
Air yds allowed7.9 yds7.6 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds4.2 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.9 yds5.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.8% ◀17.2%
Sack rate gen5.7%8.4% ◀
TO forced rate2.3% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed26.9%25.2% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesTBCLE
OFF EPA/play-0.066 ◀-0.197
QB EPA/att-0.107 ◀-0.223
Rush EPA/carry-0.028 ◀-0.082
DEF EPA allowed+0.061-0.041 ◀
Avg air yards7.3 yds7.8 yds ◀
3rd down conv%44.9% ◀33.2%
Turnover rate2.7% ◀3.4%
Pass EPA/att-0.108 ◀-0.324
Margin Model DriversTBCLE
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.19 pts▲ TB
away_pdl_matchup_17+1.02 pts▲ TB
Sack rate gen edge-0.62 pts▼ CLE
EPA/play edge (L17)+0.61 pts▲ TB
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.53 pts▲ TB
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.50 pts▼ CLE
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.35 pts▲ TB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.35 pts▲ TB
away_psm_matchup_17-0.33 pts▼ CLE
QB completion % edge+0.33 pts▲ TB
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+8.5
O/U
40.5
GB at NYJ

GB at NYJ

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -29 to +12
NYJ Win Prob
26.9%
GB Win Prob
73.1%
Projected
19–27
Exp. Margin
-8.2
Exp. Total
45.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJGB
EPA / play-0.143+0.094 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.089+0.231 ◀
Avg air yards6.7 yds8.4 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.5 yds5.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate13.5%20.0% ◀
Pass rate49.1%51.0% ◀
Shotgun rate72.1% ◀63.1%
Rush EPA / carry-0.096-0.061 ◀
3rd down conv %32.2%47.2% ◀
Red zone TD %12.5%22.7% ◀
Turnover rate2.3%1.6% ◀
QB comp %61.7% ◀61.3%
QB YPA6.2 yds7.4 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed9.3%5.8% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.177+0.055 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJGB
EPA allowed / play+0.134+0.038 ◀
Air yds allowed7.3 yds ◀7.5 yds
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.2 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.9 yds4.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.7%17.5% ◀
Sack rate gen4.0%5.4% ◀
TO forced rate0.4%1.5% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed23.3%18.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesNYJGB
OFF EPA/play-0.177+0.055 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.133+0.226 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.113 ◀-0.116
DEF EPA allowed+0.172+0.103 ◀
Avg air yards6.8 yds9.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%30.2%44.1% ◀
Turnover rate2.4%1.8% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.223+0.094 ◀
Margin Model DriversNYJGB
Net EPA edge (L17)-5.11 pts▼ GB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.50 pts▼ GB
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-1.23 pts▼ GB
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.00 pts▼ GB
3rd & medium conv edge-0.59 pts▼ GB
Sack rate gen edge-0.51 pts▼ GB
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.42 pts▲ NYJ
psl_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ NYJ
run_left_matchup_17-0.39 pts▼ GB
Yards/att edge+0.37 pts▲ NYJ
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
44.5
IND at KC

IND at KC

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -18 to +25
KC Win Prob
60.1%
IND Win Prob
39.9%
Projected
24–20
Exp. Margin
+3.8
Exp. Total
44.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesKCIND
EPA / play+0.018+0.045 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.111 ◀+0.043
Avg air yards7.6 yds7.9 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.0 yds ◀5.0 yds
Deep pass rate17.8% ◀17.4%
Pass rate54.7%56.1% ◀
Shotgun rate79.4% ◀71.8%
Rush EPA / carry+0.023+0.073 ◀
3rd down conv %38.4%41.4% ◀
Red zone TD %18.2%28.5% ◀
Turnover rate1.5% ◀2.3%
QB comp %57.7%61.9% ◀
QB YPA6.7 yds6.9 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.9%4.5% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.119 ◀-0.120
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesKCIND
EPA allowed / play-0.080 ◀+0.034
Air yds allowed6.2 yds ◀8.1 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.4 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed14.4% ◀18.6%
Sack rate gen6.3% ◀5.2%
TO forced rate1.8% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed19.9% ◀21.2%
Trending — Last 8 GamesKCIND
OFF EPA/play-0.119 ◀-0.120
QB EPA/att+0.009+0.023 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.035 ◀-0.094
DEF EPA allowed-0.075 ◀+0.098
Avg air yards6.7 yds7.2 yds ◀
3rd down conv%34.4%41.4% ◀
Turnover rate1.9% ◀2.8%
Pass EPA/att-0.236-0.139 ◀
Margin Model DriversKCIND
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.78 pts▲ KC
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.86 pts▲ KC
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.46 pts▼ IND
psm_matchup_17-0.34 pts▼ IND
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.26 pts▲ KC
Sack rate gen edge+0.24 pts▲ KC
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.23 pts▼ IND
pdl_matchup_17-0.22 pts▼ IND
away_psm_matchup_17-0.21 pts▼ IND
psl_matchup_17-0.19 pts▼ IND
Rest
6d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+6.5
O/U
47.5
JAX at DEN

JAX at DEN

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +21
DEN Win Prob
47.9%
JAX Win Prob
52.1%
Projected
21–22
Exp. Margin
-0.5
Exp. Total
44.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDENJAX
EPA / play+0.006+0.039 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.064+0.111 ◀
Avg air yards7.0 yds9.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.4 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate16.2%20.7% ◀
Pass rate57.9% ◀51.8%
Shotgun rate66.8% ◀60.4%
Rush EPA / carry-0.038 ◀-0.042
3rd down conv %41.3% ◀40.8%
Red zone TD %20.4%25.6% ◀
Turnover rate1.6% ◀1.7%
QB comp %59.3% ◀58.4%
QB YPA6.1 yds7.1 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.2% ◀6.0%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds ◀3.9 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.053+0.136 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDENJAX
EPA allowed / play-0.080-0.098 ◀
Air yds allowed8.2 yds8.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.0 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.8 yds4.3 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.5% ◀18.1%
Sack rate gen9.7% ◀5.0%
TO forced rate1.4%2.8% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed15.4% ◀17.8%
Trending — Last 8 GamesDENJAX
OFF EPA/play-0.053+0.136 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.057+0.334 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.091 ◀-0.102
DEF EPA allowed-0.056-0.162 ◀
Avg air yards5.9 yds9.8 yds ◀
3rd down conv%40.0%45.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.9%1.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.043+0.354 ◀
Margin Model DriversDENJAX
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.45 pts▼ JAX
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.36 pts▼ JAX
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.79 pts▼ JAX
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.68 pts▼ JAX
QB completion % edge+0.38 pts▲ DEN
3rd & medium conv edge-0.38 pts▼ JAX
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.34 pts▼ JAX
psm_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ DEN
away_psm_matchup_17+0.32 pts▲ DEN
away_psr_matchup_17+0.29 pts▲ DEN
Rest
6d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
44.5
LV at LAC

LV at LAC

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -16 to +29
LAC Win Prob
67.9%
LV Win Prob
32.1%
Projected
24–18
Exp. Margin
+6.3
Exp. Total
42.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLACLV
EPA / play-0.078 ◀-0.237
QB EPA / att-0.046-0.024 ◀
Avg air yards8.0 yds ◀5.9 yds
Avg YAC4.8 yds5.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.6% ◀12.3%
Pass rate52.6%54.3% ◀
Shotgun rate72.5% ◀63.9%
Rush EPA / carry+0.021 ◀-0.254
3rd down conv %42.8% ◀32.8%
Red zone TD %14.1%18.7% ◀
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.6%
QB comp %59.1%61.5% ◀
QB YPA6.4 yds6.6 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed9.3%8.9% ◀
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀3.4 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.107 ◀-0.245
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLACLV
EPA allowed / play-0.070 ◀+0.004
Air yds allowed7.6 yds ◀7.9 yds
YPC allowed4.3 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed6.0 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.0% ◀16.9%
Sack rate gen7.7% ◀6.1%
TO forced rate2.1% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed14.3% ◀23.5%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLACLV
OFF EPA/play-0.107 ◀-0.245
QB EPA/att-0.103+0.017 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.080 ◀-0.283
DEF EPA allowed-0.109 ◀-0.038
Avg air yards9.0 yds ◀6.7 yds
3rd down conv%39.6% ◀29.5%
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att-0.125 ◀-0.251
Margin Model DriversLACLV
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.08 pts▲ LAC
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.89 pts▲ LAC
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.73 pts▲ LAC
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.69 pts▲ LAC
EPA/play edge (L17)+0.54 pts▲ LAC
psm_matchup_17-0.50 pts▼ LV
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.44 pts▼ LV
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.44 pts▼ LV
DEF red zone TD% edge+0.44 pts▲ LAC
3rd down conv edge+0.40 pts▲ LAC
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+7.0
O/U
43.5
MIA at SF

MIA at SF

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +27
SF Win Prob
67.1%
MIA Win Prob
32.9%
Projected
25–19
Exp. Margin
+6.3
Exp. Total
45.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSFMIA
EPA / play+0.060 ◀-0.017
QB EPA / att+0.125 ◀-0.072
Avg air yards7.4 yds ◀7.3 yds
Avg YAC4.7 yds5.9 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.7%15.9% ◀
Pass rate54.0% ◀50.6%
Shotgun rate54.0%71.6% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.028 ◀-0.084
3rd down conv %50.6% ◀32.4%
Red zone TD %22.5%23.9% ◀
Turnover rate2.4% ◀2.5%
QB comp %63.8% ◀57.1%
QB YPA7.2 yds7.2 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.0% ◀6.9%
YPC (rush)4.0 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.052 ◀-0.065
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSFMIA
EPA allowed / play+0.079+0.069 ◀
Air yds allowed8.0 yds7.3 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.4 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.4 yds
Deep rate allowed19.2%16.7% ◀
Sack rate gen3.3%6.2% ◀
TO forced rate1.4%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed20.4% ◀28.3%
Trending — Last 8 GamesSFMIA
OFF EPA/play+0.052 ◀-0.065
QB EPA/att+0.110 ◀-0.072
Rush EPA/carry-0.015 ◀-0.095
DEF EPA allowed+0.042 ◀+0.051
Avg air yards7.5 yds7.9 yds ◀
3rd down conv%55.4% ◀27.9%
Turnover rate2.3%2.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.115 ◀-0.071
Margin Model DriversSFMIA
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.71 pts▲ SF
away_pdm_matchup_17+1.09 pts▲ SF
Sack rate gen edge-0.91 pts▼ MIA
pdm_matchup_17-0.63 pts▼ MIA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.61 pts▲ SF
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.56 pts▲ SF
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.46 pts▲ SF
pdl_matchup_17+0.37 pts▲ SF
QB completion % edge+0.33 pts▲ SF
Temperature-0.25 pts▼ MIA
Rest
10d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+13.5
O/U
45.5
MIN at CHI

MIN at CHI

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -21 to +25
CHI Win Prob
54.0%
MIN Win Prob
46.0%
Projected
23–21
Exp. Margin
+2.2
Exp. Total
45.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCHIMIN
EPA / play+0.102 ◀-0.125
QB EPA / att+0.094 ◀+0.093
Avg air yards9.0 yds ◀7.7 yds
Avg YAC5.6 yds ◀4.9 yds
Deep pass rate23.5% ◀18.2%
Pass rate53.1% ◀51.1%
Shotgun rate52.6%56.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.081 ◀-0.072
3rd down conv %43.6% ◀33.0%
Red zone TD %18.8%21.7% ◀
Turnover rate1.3% ◀3.2%
QB comp %54.8%65.2% ◀
QB YPA6.7 yds ◀6.6 yds
Sack rate allowed3.4% ◀10.1%
YPC (rush)4.9 yds ◀4.4 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.135 ◀-0.124
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCHIMIN
EPA allowed / play+0.022-0.119 ◀
Air yds allowed8.8 yds6.8 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.7 yds3.8 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.4 yds
Deep rate allowed18.7%13.3% ◀
Sack rate gen5.5%9.6% ◀
TO forced rate3.1% ◀2.3%
RZ TD rate allowed24.9%12.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesCHIMIN
OFF EPA/play+0.135 ◀-0.124
QB EPA/att+0.173 ◀+0.070
Rush EPA/carry+0.075 ◀-0.027
DEF EPA allowed+0.088-0.228 ◀
Avg air yards9.4 yds ◀6.4 yds
3rd down conv%45.6% ◀34.2%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀3.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.179 ◀-0.300
Margin Model DriversCHIMIN
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.72 pts▲ CHI
Sack rate gen edge-0.68 pts▼ MIN
QB completion % edge-0.67 pts▼ MIN
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.59 pts▲ CHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.51 pts▲ CHI
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.44 pts▼ MIN
DEF red zone TD% edge-0.41 pts▼ MIN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.38 pts▲ CHI
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.34 pts▼ MIN
DEF EPA allowed edge (L17)-0.32 pts▼ MIN
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+5.5
O/U
49.5
NO at BAL

NO at BAL

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -18 to +26
BAL Win Prob
58.9%
NO Win Prob
41.1%
Projected
23–19
Exp. Margin
+3.9
Exp. Total
43.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesBALNO
EPA / play+0.033 ◀-0.084
QB EPA / att+0.107 ◀-0.001
Avg air yards8.4 yds ◀8.3 yds
Avg YAC5.3 yds ◀4.4 yds
Deep pass rate17.2%17.3% ◀
Pass rate44.7%55.2% ◀
Shotgun rate63.6%77.6% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.055 ◀-0.154
3rd down conv %39.0%39.6% ◀
Red zone TD %18.5%21.9% ◀
Turnover rate2.4% ◀2.5%
QB comp %58.1%61.4% ◀
QB YPA8.1 yds ◀6.9 yds
Sack rate allowed8.6%7.4% ◀
YPC (rush)5.1 yds ◀3.6 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.095 ◀-0.028
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesBALNO
EPA allowed / play-0.006-0.062 ◀
Air yds allowed8.1 yds8.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.2 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.8 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed18.7%18.1% ◀
Sack rate gen4.7%6.7% ◀
TO forced rate2.3% ◀2.1%
RZ TD rate allowed19.6% ◀20.4%
Trending — Last 8 GamesBALNO
OFF EPA/play+0.095 ◀-0.028
QB EPA/att-0.060+0.007 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.126 ◀-0.085
DEF EPA allowed-0.009-0.138 ◀
Avg air yards9.2 yds ◀8.3 yds
3rd down conv%39.7%41.9% ◀
Turnover rate2.6%2.1% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.068 ◀+0.002
Margin Model DriversBALNO
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.46 pts▲ BAL
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.65 pts▲ BAL
home_pace_17-0.50 pts▼ NO
away_psm_matchup_17+0.49 pts▲ BAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.47 pts▼ NO
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.44 pts▼ NO
run_right_matchup_17-0.42 pts▼ NO
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ NO
pdm_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ BAL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.37 pts▲ BAL
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+8.5
O/U
46.5
PHI at TEN

PHI at TEN

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -30 to +13
TEN Win Prob
26.7%
PHI Win Prob
73.3%
Projected
17–25
Exp. Margin
-8.3
Exp. Total
42.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesTENPHI
EPA / play-0.150+0.023 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.197+0.080 ◀
Avg air yards6.8 yds9.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.8 yds ◀4.4 yds
Deep pass rate14.9%20.2% ◀
Pass rate58.4% ◀51.6%
Shotgun rate74.0%76.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.040 ◀-0.045
3rd down conv %31.8%34.9% ◀
Red zone TD %24.9% ◀19.7%
Turnover rate1.9%1.4% ◀
QB comp %53.7%59.2% ◀
QB YPA5.2 yds6.7 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed7.6%6.1% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.112+0.005 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesTENPHI
EPA allowed / play+0.123-0.071 ◀
Air yds allowed7.8 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed4.3 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.8 yds5.5 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.5%17.3% ◀
Sack rate gen6.8% ◀6.6%
TO forced rate0.9%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed31.0%18.5% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesTENPHI
OFF EPA/play-0.112+0.005 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.130+0.073 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.053 ◀-0.002
DEF EPA allowed+0.099-0.093 ◀
Avg air yards6.0 yds9.0 yds ◀
3rd down conv%33.6%40.7% ◀
Turnover rate1.3% ◀1.9%
Pass EPA/att-0.206+0.055 ◀
Margin Model DriversTENPHI
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.37 pts▼ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.23 pts▼ PHI
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.89 pts▼ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.79 pts▼ PHI
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.74 pts▼ PHI
pdl_matchup_17-0.38 pts▼ PHI
QB completion % edge+0.37 pts▲ TEN
away_pace_17+0.35 pts▲ TEN
home_pace_17-0.28 pts▼ PHI
DEF red zone TD% edge-0.28 pts▼ PHI
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-7.0
O/U
39.5
PIT at NE

PIT at NE

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -13 to +29
NE Win Prob
73.2%
PIT Win Prob
26.8%
Projected
25–17
Exp. Margin
+7.8
Exp. Total
42.6
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNEPIT
EPA / play+0.087 ◀-0.030
QB EPA / att+0.181 ◀-0.050
Avg air yards10.0 yds ◀6.3 yds
Avg YAC5.3 yds6.3 yds ◀
Deep pass rate22.5% ◀14.7%
Pass rate48.1%57.2% ◀
Shotgun rate56.4%65.8% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.016 ◀-0.018
3rd down conv %40.7% ◀37.4%
Red zone TD %26.0% ◀18.3%
Turnover rate1.9%1.7% ◀
QB comp %61.8% ◀60.6%
QB YPA7.7 yds ◀6.1 yds
Sack rate allowed8.6%4.7% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.3 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.026 ◀-0.089
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNEPIT
EPA allowed / play-0.122 ◀-0.013
Air yds allowed7.5 yds6.7 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.2 yds4.1 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.3 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep rate allowed15.2%14.1% ◀
Sack rate gen6.3%7.2% ◀
TO forced rate2.1%2.6% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed23.2%19.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesNEPIT
OFF EPA/play+0.026 ◀-0.089
QB EPA/att+0.114 ◀-0.096
Rush EPA/carry-0.038 ◀-0.062
DEF EPA allowed-0.174 ◀-0.019
Avg air yards9.9 yds ◀6.8 yds
3rd down conv%36.3% ◀33.8%
Turnover rate2.5%1.4% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.040 ◀-0.108
Margin Model DriversNEPIT
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.43 pts▲ NE
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.82 pts▲ NE
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.56 pts▲ NE
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.36 pts▼ PIT
Temperature-0.31 pts▼ PIT
Yards/att edge-0.27 pts▼ PIT
run_left_matchup_17-0.25 pts▼ PIT
pdm_matchup_17+0.25 pts▲ NE
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.24 pts▲ NE
pdr_matchup_17+0.23 pts▲ NE
Rest
11d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+5.5
O/U
42.5
SEA at ARI

SEA at ARI

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -30 to +13
ARI Win Prob
29.7%
SEA Win Prob
70.3%
Projected
18–26
Exp. Margin
-7.5
Exp. Total
44.7
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesARISEA
EPA / play-0.008+0.072 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.051+0.180 ◀
Avg air yards7.3 yds8.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate15.7%16.7% ◀
Pass rate60.8% ◀49.3%
Shotgun rate70.5% ◀46.9%
Rush EPA / carry-0.065-0.057 ◀
3rd down conv %41.1% ◀39.0%
Red zone TD %22.9% ◀17.9%
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.1%
QB comp %58.0%63.2% ◀
QB YPA6.0 yds8.1 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed7.0%5.4% ◀
YPC (rush)4.1 yds4.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.012+0.054 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesARISEA
EPA allowed / play+0.077-0.158 ◀
Air yds allowed8.0 yds7.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.3 yds5.3 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.7%16.3% ◀
Sack rate gen5.2%6.6% ◀
TO forced rate2.0%2.9% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed23.5%22.7% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesARISEA
OFF EPA/play-0.012+0.054 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.008+0.115 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.044-0.028 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.118-0.160 ◀
Avg air yards7.5 yds ◀7.1 yds
3rd down conv%37.5% ◀36.4%
Turnover rate1.7%1.2% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.001+0.104 ◀
Margin Model DriversARISEA
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.39 pts▼ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.23 pts▼ SEA
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.98 pts▼ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.92 pts▼ SEA
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.56 pts▲ ARI
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ ARI
run_mid_matchup_17-0.37 pts▼ SEA
Sack rate gen edge-0.33 pts▼ SEA
home_pace_17+0.25 pts▲ ARI
Rest advantage+0.21 pts▲ ARI
Rest
7d
 
11d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
41.5
WAS at DAL

WAS at DAL

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -15 to +28
DAL Win Prob
67.6%
WAS Win Prob
32.4%
Projected
27–21
Exp. Margin
+6.1
Exp. Total
48.6
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDALWAS
EPA / play+0.106 ◀-0.000
QB EPA / att+0.193 ◀+0.053
Avg air yards8.1 yds8.6 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.2 yds ◀5.1 yds
Deep pass rate17.9%19.4% ◀
Pass rate57.1% ◀48.3%
Shotgun rate62.9%86.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.033+0.000 ◀
3rd down conv %41.1% ◀35.5%
Red zone TD %20.0%27.1% ◀
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.3%
QB comp %64.0% ◀59.3%
QB YPA7.1 yds ◀6.2 yds
Sack rate allowed4.0% ◀6.5%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds4.6 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.079 ◀-0.023
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDALWAS
EPA allowed / play+0.182+0.161 ◀
Air yds allowed8.0 yds ◀8.2 yds
YPC allowed4.7 yds ◀4.8 yds
YAC allowed5.8 yds ◀6.4 yds
Deep rate allowed17.2%17.0% ◀
Sack rate gen5.2%6.9% ◀
TO forced rate1.1% ◀1.1%
RZ TD rate allowed23.6% ◀25.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesDALWAS
OFF EPA/play+0.079 ◀-0.023
QB EPA/att+0.219 ◀-0.014
Rush EPA/carry-0.054+0.011 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.252+0.120 ◀
Avg air yards8.9 yds ◀8.5 yds
3rd down conv%42.1% ◀34.4%
Turnover rate2.2% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.162 ◀-0.049
Margin Model DriversDALWAS
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.64 pts▲ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.30 pts▲ DAL
away_psl_matchup_17-1.20 pts▼ WAS
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.81 pts▼ WAS
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.76 pts▼ WAS
Sack rate gen edge-0.66 pts▼ WAS
QB completion % edge+0.56 pts▲ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.53 pts▲ DAL
pdl_matchup_17+0.49 pts▲ DAL
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.47 pts▼ WAS
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
50.5
NYG at LA

NYG at LA

2026 Week 2 · 2026-09-21 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -16 to +30
LA Win Prob
66.6%
NYG Win Prob
33.4%
Projected
28–22
Exp. Margin
+6.5
Exp. Total
51.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLANYG
EPA / play+0.125 ◀+0.042
QB EPA / att+0.179 ◀+0.006
Avg air yards9.8 yds ◀8.4 yds
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.4 yds ◀
Deep pass rate25.9% ◀17.2%
Pass rate56.8% ◀48.0%
Shotgun rate43.3%76.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.006+0.038 ◀
3rd down conv %34.5%42.1% ◀
Red zone TD %24.5% ◀19.4%
Turnover rate1.5% ◀1.6%
QB comp %60.6% ◀58.1%
QB YPA7.4 yds ◀6.0 yds
Sack rate allowed3.1% ◀8.2%
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀4.4 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.098 ◀+0.068
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLANYG
EPA allowed / play-0.024 ◀+0.086
Air yds allowed7.8 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed4.4 yds ◀5.4 yds
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.0 yds
Deep rate allowed17.9% ◀19.9%
Sack rate gen5.2%5.9% ◀
TO forced rate2.3% ◀1.7%
RZ TD rate allowed16.6% ◀27.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLANYG
OFF EPA/play+0.098 ◀+0.068
QB EPA/att+0.151 ◀+0.012
Rush EPA/carry-0.008+0.043 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.076+0.061 ◀
Avg air yards11.1 yds ◀8.0 yds
3rd down conv%30.7%44.8% ◀
Turnover rate1.6%1.6% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.162 ◀+0.023
Margin Model DriversLANYG
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.92 pts▲ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.60 pts▲ LA
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.59 pts▼ NYG
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.57 pts▲ LA
run_right_matchup_17+0.50 pts▲ LA
3rd & medium conv edge-0.49 pts▼ NYG
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.48 pts▼ NYG
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.40 pts▼ NYG
QB completion % edge+0.38 pts▲ LA
away_psm_matchup_17+0.37 pts▲ LA
Rest
11d
 
8d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+7.0
O/U
48.5
Download week 2 projections (CSV)
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.