2026 Week 7 Projections
14 games · 10,000 simulations each
· generated Oct 20, 2026
| Date | Matchup | QBs | Proj score | Favorite | Home win | Total | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 |
NE
at
CHI
|
Drake Maye / Caleb Williams | 23.4 – 23.9 | CHI 0.6 | 50% | 47.3 | +3.0 | -2.4 |
| 10-25 |
CIN
at
BAL
|
Joe Burrow / Lamar Jackson | 21.8 – 27.6 | BAL 5.7 | 64% | 49.4 | +2.5 | +3.2 |
| 10-25 |
CLE
at
TEN
|
Deshaun Watson / Cam Ward | 23.0 – 16.2 | CLE 6.8 | 30% | 39.2 | -1.5 | -5.3 |
| 10-25 |
DEN
at
ARI
|
Bo Nix / Jacoby Brissett | 24.5 – 21.9 | DEN 2.6 | 40% | 46.4 | -4.5 | +1.9 |
| 10-25 |
GB
at
DET
|
Jordan Love / Jared Goff | 21.3 – 27.4 | DET 6.2 | 68% | 48.7 | +3.0 | +3.2 |
| 10-25 |
IND
at
MIN
|
Daniel Jones / Kyler Murray | 18.0 – 23.5 | MIN 5.5 | 66% | 41.5 | +6.5 | -1.0 |
| 10-25 |
KC
at
SEA
|
Patrick Mahomes / Sam Darnold | 20.2 – 23.2 | SEA 3.1 | 59% | 43.4 | +2.5 | +0.6 |
| 10-25 |
LA
at
LV
|
Matthew Stafford / Kirk Cousins | 26.9 – 21.0 | LA 5.9 | 33% | 47.9 | -4.5 | -1.4 |
| 10-25 |
MIA
at
NYJ
|
Malik Willis / Geno Smith | 18.7 – 22.8 | NYJ 4.1 | 62% | 41.5 | +4.5 | -0.4 |
| 10-25 |
NYG
at
HOU
|
Jameis Winston / C.J. Stroud | 17.1 – 28.4 | HOU 11.3 | 80% | 45.5 | +10.0 | +1.3 |
| 10-25 |
PIT
at
NO (neutral)
|
Aaron Rodgers / Tyler Shough | 19.2 – 23.7 | NO 4.5 | 60% | 42.9 | -3.5 | +8.0⚡ FADE |
| 10-25 |
SF
at
ATL
|
Brock Purdy / Michael Penix Jr. | 24.2 – 20.7 | SF 3.6 | 39% | 44.9 | -3.5 | -0.1 |
| 10-25 |
TB
at
CAR
|
Baker Mayfield / Bryce Young | 19.7 – 22.5 | CAR 2.8 | 58% | 42.2 | +3.5 | -0.7 |
| 10-26 |
DAL
at
PHI
|
Dak Prescott / Tanner McKee | 23.0 – 23.5 | PHI 0.5 | 49% | 46.5 | -4.5 | +5.0⚡ FADE |
Market is the spread from the home team's perspective — positive means the home side is favored. Edge is the model's margin minus the market's; FADE marks the games where the two disagree on the winner.
at
NE at CHI
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-22 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-22 to +23
CHI Win Prob
49.8%
NE Win Prob
50.2%
Projected
24–23
Exp. Margin
+0.6
Exp. Total
47.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCHINE
EPA / play+0.049+0.064 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.104+0.134 ◀
Avg air yards8.4 yds9.8 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.1 yds ◀5.1 yds
Deep pass rate21.1%22.3% ◀
Pass rate52.4% ◀49.7%
Shotgun rate52.9%57.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.005 ◀-0.012
3rd down conv %43.7% ◀40.4%
Red zone TD %17.9%26.6% ◀
Turnover rate1.9% ◀2.3%
QB comp %56.0%60.9% ◀
QB YPA6.6 yds7.6 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed3.9% ◀7.1%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.025 ◀-0.032
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCHINE
EPA allowed / play-0.002-0.094 ◀
Air yds allowed8.6 yds7.4 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.7 yds4.1 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.2 yds4.6 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.5%15.0% ◀
Sack rate gen6.5% ◀6.4%
TO forced rate2.2%2.2% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed20.1%19.8% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesCHINE
OFF EPA/play+0.025 ◀-0.032
QB EPA/att+0.189 ◀-0.045
Rush EPA/carry-0.094-0.026 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.010-0.047 ◀
Avg air yards7.8 yds9.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%46.4% ◀39.5%
Turnover rate3.1% ◀3.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.105 ◀-0.059
Margin Model DriversCHINE
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.31 pts▲ CHI
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.07 pts▼ NE
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.97 pts▼ NE
pdm_matchup_17-0.70 pts▼ NE
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.50 pts▼ NE
Yards/att edge+0.45 pts▲ CHI
pdl_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ CHI
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.35 pts▼ NE
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.35 pts▲ CHI
away_run_left_matchup_17-0.30 pts▼ NE
Rest
4d
4d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
50.5
at
CIN at BAL
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-17 to +29
BAL Win Prob
63.7%
CIN Win Prob
36.3%
Projected
28–22
Exp. Margin
+5.7
Exp. Total
49.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesBALCIN
EPA / play+0.086 ◀+0.075
QB EPA / att+0.114+0.135 ◀
Avg air yards8.5 yds ◀7.2 yds
Avg YAC5.5 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate16.9% ◀14.2%
Pass rate43.0%61.7% ◀
Shotgun rate60.9%78.9% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.065 ◀+0.012
3rd down conv %39.0%47.8% ◀
Red zone TD %20.9%30.5% ◀
Turnover rate1.7%1.6% ◀
QB comp %59.2%66.8% ◀
QB YPA8.2 yds ◀6.8 yds
Sack rate allowed7.7%4.1% ◀
YPC (rush)5.1 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.149 ◀+0.122
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesBALCIN
EPA allowed / play-0.050 ◀+0.082
Air yds allowed8.0 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀5.3 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀6.8 yds
Deep rate allowed17.5% ◀17.6%
Sack rate gen5.6%7.2% ◀
TO forced rate2.4%2.6% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed14.8% ◀18.6%
Trending — Last 8 GamesBALCIN
OFF EPA/play+0.149 ◀+0.122
QB EPA/att+0.153+0.196 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.019 ◀-0.003
DEF EPA allowed-0.012-0.038 ◀
Avg air yards8.2 yds ◀6.6 yds
3rd down conv%40.8%51.7% ◀
Turnover rate1.1% ◀1.4%
Pass EPA/att+0.294 ◀+0.189
Margin Model DriversBALCIN
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.69 pts▲ BAL
Sack rate allowed edge+0.48 pts▲ BAL
away_run_mid_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ BAL
DEF EPA allowed edge (L17)+0.33 pts▲ BAL
away_psm_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ BAL
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.31 pts▼ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.27 pts▼ CIN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.27 pts▲ BAL
home_pace_17-0.27 pts▼ CIN
pdl_matchup_17+0.25 pts▲ BAL
Rest
7d
14d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
51.5
at
CLE at TEN
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-27 to +13
TEN Win Prob
30.3%
CLE Win Prob
69.7%
Projected
16–23
Exp. Margin
-6.8
Exp. Total
39.2
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesTENCLE
EPA / play-0.136 ◀-0.166
QB EPA / att-0.164-0.125 ◀
Avg air yards6.7 yds7.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.9 yds ◀
Deep pass rate15.2% ◀13.8%
Pass rate56.7% ◀49.9%
Shotgun rate70.0%70.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.050 ◀-0.112
3rd down conv %33.0% ◀31.8%
Red zone TD %20.5% ◀15.8%
Turnover rate1.8% ◀2.5%
QB comp %57.4% ◀55.8%
QB YPA5.5 yds5.5 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.2% ◀9.4%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds ◀3.8 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.174-0.109 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesTENCLE
EPA allowed / play+0.093-0.098 ◀
Air yds allowed8.4 yds8.1 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.4 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep rate allowed18.2%17.6% ◀
Sack rate gen7.7%9.0% ◀
TO forced rate0.9%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed24.3%19.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesTENCLE
OFF EPA/play-0.174-0.109 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.129-0.075 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.073 ◀-0.128
DEF EPA allowed+0.094-0.056 ◀
Avg air yards6.8 yds7.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%33.3% ◀31.6%
Turnover rate2.2% ◀2.3%
Pass EPA/att-0.243-0.135 ◀
Margin Model DriversTENCLE
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.61 pts▼ CLE
away_psl_matchup_17-2.61 pts▼ CLE
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.62 pts▼ CLE
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.94 pts▼ CLE
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.68 pts▲ TEN
away_pace_17+0.41 pts▲ TEN
QB sack rate edge-0.37 pts▼ CLE
QB completion % edge+0.34 pts▲ TEN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.32 pts▼ CLE
home_pace_17-0.31 pts▼ CLE
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-1.5
O/U
38.5
at
DEN at ARI
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-23 to +17
ARI Win Prob
40.0%
DEN Win Prob
60.1%
Projected
21–24
Exp. Margin
-2.6
Exp. Total
46.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesARIDEN
EPA / play-0.034 ◀-0.045
QB EPA / att-0.025+0.039 ◀
Avg air yards7.2 yds ◀6.2 yds
Avg YAC4.6 yds5.4 yds ◀
Deep pass rate15.0% ◀14.8%
Pass rate61.6% ◀57.2%
Shotgun rate65.7%66.9% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.078 ◀-0.093
3rd down conv %39.4% ◀38.5%
Red zone TD %20.5%24.7% ◀
Turnover rate1.9%1.6% ◀
QB comp %60.4% ◀59.5%
QB YPA6.0 yds6.0 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.7%4.2% ◀
YPC (rush)3.9 yds ◀3.7 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.034 ◀-0.104
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesARIDEN
EPA allowed / play+0.114-0.074 ◀
Air yds allowed8.3 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.3 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.6 yds4.5 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.9%17.2% ◀
Sack rate gen5.5%8.2% ◀
TO forced rate1.9%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed22.8%18.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesARIDEN
OFF EPA/play-0.034 ◀-0.104
QB EPA/att-0.041 ◀-0.084
Rush EPA/carry-0.083 ◀-0.104
DEF EPA allowed+0.131-0.036 ◀
Avg air yards6.9 yds ◀5.2 yds
3rd down conv%36.1% ◀32.8%
Turnover rate1.8%1.8% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.023 ◀-0.131
Margin Model DriversARIDEN
Net EPA edge (L17)-3.43 pts▼ DEN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.03 pts▲ ARI
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.99 pts▼ DEN
pdm_matchup_17-0.66 pts▼ DEN
3rd & medium conv edge+0.51 pts▲ ARI
home_pace_17+0.42 pts▲ ARI
Sack rate gen edge-0.42 pts▼ DEN
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.42 pts▼ DEN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.34 pts▲ ARI
away_psm_matchup_17-0.33 pts▼ DEN
Rest
7d
10d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
43.5
at
GB at DET
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-15 to +28
DET Win Prob
67.9%
GB Win Prob
32.1%
Projected
27–21
Exp. Margin
+6.2
Exp. Total
48.7
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDETGB
EPA / play+0.085 ◀+0.046
QB EPA / att+0.181+0.199 ◀
Avg air yards6.6 yds9.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.2 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate14.2%21.7% ◀
Pass rate58.0% ◀54.5%
Shotgun rate52.9%64.3% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.054 ◀-0.141
3rd down conv %38.7%42.6% ◀
Red zone TD %21.2% ◀19.8%
Turnover rate1.2% ◀1.8%
QB comp %62.5% ◀59.5%
QB YPA7.4 yds ◀7.0 yds
Sack rate allowed6.0%5.8% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀3.8 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.088 ◀-0.023
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDETGB
EPA allowed / play+0.064+0.016 ◀
Air yds allowed9.4 yds7.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds4.1 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.8 yds
Deep rate allowed20.5%16.7% ◀
Sack rate gen7.4% ◀5.3%
TO forced rate1.3%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed20.9%17.4% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesDETGB
OFF EPA/play+0.088 ◀-0.023
QB EPA/att+0.223 ◀+0.145
Rush EPA/carry-0.149 ◀-0.242
DEF EPA allowed+0.091-0.030 ◀
Avg air yards7.2 yds8.2 yds ◀
3rd down conv%38.8% ◀31.9%
Turnover rate1.5%1.5% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.228 ◀-0.001
Margin Model DriversDETGB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.28 pts▲ DET
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.61 pts▲ DET
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.59 pts▼ GB
run_left_matchup_17+0.46 pts▲ DET
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.45 pts▼ GB
QB completion % edge+0.40 pts▲ DET
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.32 pts▲ DET
away_psr_matchup_17+0.29 pts▲ DET
Sack rate gen edge+0.27 pts▲ DET
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.26 pts▼ GB
Rest
14d
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
53.5
at
IND at MIN
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-16 to +27
MIN Win Prob
66.5%
IND Win Prob
33.5%
Projected
23–18
Exp. Margin
+5.5
Exp. Total
41.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesMININD
EPA / play-0.140-0.016 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.042+0.045 ◀
Avg air yards7.2 yds7.8 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.8 yds4.9 yds ◀
Deep pass rate18.2% ◀17.3%
Pass rate50.1%56.1% ◀
Shotgun rate56.9%69.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.084+0.056 ◀
3rd down conv %33.0%39.0% ◀
Red zone TD %19.2%24.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.7%2.6% ◀
QB comp %64.8% ◀60.8%
QB YPA6.4 yds6.8 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed9.5%5.5% ◀
YPC (rush)4.3 yds ◀4.3 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.111-0.083 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesMININD
EPA allowed / play-0.136 ◀+0.035
Air yds allowed7.4 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed3.8 yds ◀4.0 yds
YAC allowed5.5 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed15.7% ◀18.9%
Sack rate gen9.6% ◀4.8%
TO forced rate2.5% ◀1.4%
RZ TD rate allowed10.8% ◀20.9%
Trending — Last 8 GamesMININD
OFF EPA/play-0.111-0.083 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.021 ◀-0.105
Rush EPA/carry-0.087+0.035 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.284 ◀+0.036
Avg air yards6.3 yds8.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%35.7%39.1% ◀
Turnover rate1.5% ◀3.1%
Pass EPA/att-0.229-0.178 ◀
Margin Model DriversMININD
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.79 pts▲ MIN
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.66 pts▲ MIN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.78 pts▲ MIN
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.62 pts▼ IND
Sack rate gen edge+0.53 pts▲ MIN
psl_matchup_17+0.53 pts▲ MIN
Rush EPA/carry edge (L8)-0.44 pts▼ IND
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.43 pts▼ IND
Sack rate allowed edge+0.42 pts▲ MIN
DEF red zone TD% edge+0.39 pts▲ MIN
Rest
14d
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+6.5
O/U
41.5
at
KC at SEA
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-18 to +25
SEA Win Prob
58.9%
KC Win Prob
41.1%
Projected
23–20
Exp. Margin
+3.1
Exp. Total
43.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSEAKC
EPA / play-0.001+0.027 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.079+0.161 ◀
Avg air yards7.2 yds ◀7.0 yds
Avg YAC5.7 yds6.4 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.5%16.7% ◀
Pass rate50.8%54.0% ◀
Shotgun rate49.6%73.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.092+0.011 ◀
3rd down conv %36.5%36.8% ◀
Red zone TD %18.2% ◀17.0%
Turnover rate2.3%1.5% ◀
QB comp %61.3% ◀60.5%
QB YPA7.5 yds ◀7.1 yds
Sack rate allowed6.6% ◀6.7%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds4.4 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.037-0.030 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSEAKC
EPA allowed / play-0.192 ◀-0.078
Air yds allowed6.6 yds6.3 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds3.6 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.4 yds
Deep rate allowed16.0%14.7% ◀
Sack rate gen6.2% ◀5.0%
TO forced rate3.0% ◀1.9%
RZ TD rate allowed26.6%18.0% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesSEAKC
OFF EPA/play-0.037-0.030 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.041+0.064 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.205-0.001 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.107-0.119 ◀
Avg air yards7.7 yds ◀6.1 yds
3rd down conv%33.5%33.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.9%1.1% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.080 ◀-0.087
Margin Model DriversSEAKC
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.74 pts▲ SEA
pdl_matchup_17-1.21 pts▼ KC
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.72 pts▼ KC
away_psr_matchup_17+0.61 pts▲ SEA
Sack rate gen edge+0.52 pts▲ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.35 pts▼ KC
away_psm_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ SEA
pdm_matchup_17+0.32 pts▲ SEA
DEF red zone TD% edge-0.32 pts▼ KC
QB INT rate edge-0.29 pts▼ KC
Rest
10d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
42.5
at
LA at LV
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-28 to +15
LV Win Prob
33.4%
LA Win Prob
66.6%
Projected
20–27
Exp. Margin
-5.9
Exp. Total
47.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLVLA
EPA / play-0.175+0.101 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.019+0.131 ◀
Avg air yards6.5 yds9.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.8 yds5.2 yds ◀
Deep pass rate12.6%23.3% ◀
Pass rate57.5%59.0% ◀
Shotgun rate62.8% ◀48.1%
Rush EPA / carry-0.285+0.026 ◀
3rd down conv %34.0%36.4% ◀
Red zone TD %20.4%24.7% ◀
Turnover rate2.1%1.8% ◀
QB comp %59.6%60.5% ◀
QB YPA6.6 yds7.4 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.1%3.4% ◀
YPC (rush)3.1 yds4.8 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.076+0.066 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLVLA
EPA allowed / play+0.021-0.018 ◀
Air yds allowed8.2 yds7.6 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.2 yds ◀4.3 yds
YAC allowed5.6 yds ◀5.9 yds
Deep rate allowed17.9% ◀17.9%
Sack rate gen6.2% ◀5.0%
TO forced rate1.9%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed27.2%17.5% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesLVLA
OFF EPA/play-0.076+0.066 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.140 ◀+0.097
Rush EPA/carry-0.290-0.027 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.008-0.014 ◀
Avg air yards8.0 yds9.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%38.2% ◀37.8%
Turnover rate2.4%1.8% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.029+0.107 ◀
Margin Model DriversLVLA
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.59 pts▼ LA
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.97 pts▼ LA
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.88 pts▼ LA
run_left_matchup_17+0.80 pts▲ LV
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.62 pts▲ LV
home_pace_17-0.50 pts▼ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.44 pts▼ LA
away_psm_matchup_17-0.42 pts▼ LA
Yards/att edge+0.34 pts▲ LV
3rd & medium conv edge+0.34 pts▲ LV
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
47.5
at
MIA at NYJ
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-16 to +25
NYJ Win Prob
61.7%
MIA Win Prob
38.3%
Projected
22–19
Exp. Margin
+4.1
Exp. Total
41.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJMIA
EPA / play-0.122-0.066 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.104 ◀-0.129
Avg air yards6.9 yds8.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.2 yds6.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate13.7%18.3% ◀
Pass rate50.0% ◀47.8%
Shotgun rate66.0% ◀65.2%
Rush EPA / carry-0.109-0.043 ◀
3rd down conv %34.6% ◀32.1%
Red zone TD %10.4%20.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.9%
QB comp %60.7% ◀55.0%
QB YPA6.1 yds6.7 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.6%7.6% ◀
YPC (rush)4.0 yds4.8 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.081 ◀-0.115
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJMIA
EPA allowed / play+0.083+0.054 ◀
Air yds allowed7.6 yds7.4 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.4 yds4.1 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.3 yds5.3 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.9% ◀18.3%
Sack rate gen5.2% ◀4.9%
TO forced rate0.9%1.7% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed21.7% ◀27.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesNYJMIA
OFF EPA/play-0.081 ◀-0.115
QB EPA/att+0.020 ◀-0.055
Rush EPA/carry-0.161-0.060 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.058 ◀+0.178
Avg air yards6.2 yds9.4 yds ◀
3rd down conv%31.9%35.6% ◀
Turnover rate1.0% ◀2.9%
Pass EPA/att-0.055 ◀-0.193
Margin Model DriversNYJMIA
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.06 pts▼ MIA
psl_matchup_17+0.87 pts▲ NYJ
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.86 pts▲ NYJ
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.66 pts▼ MIA
psm_matchup_17-0.46 pts▼ MIA
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.41 pts▲ NYJ
away_psr_matchup_17-0.38 pts▼ MIA
Temperature-0.35 pts▼ MIA
QB completion % edge+0.35 pts▲ NYJ
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.33 pts▲ NYJ
Rest
7d
14d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+4.5
O/U
38.5
at
NYG at HOU
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-10 to +33
HOU Win Prob
80.1%
NYG Win Prob
19.9%
Projected
28–17
Exp. Margin
+11.3
Exp. Total
45.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUNYG
EPA / play-0.012+0.019 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.130 ◀-0.115
Avg air yards8.9 yds ◀8.6 yds
Avg YAC4.5 yds5.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate17.8%18.1% ◀
Pass rate55.9% ◀50.1%
Shotgun rate62.1%69.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.117+0.002 ◀
3rd down conv %41.5% ◀40.7%
Red zone TD %24.3% ◀18.7%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀1.8%
QB comp %60.8% ◀54.1%
QB YPA7.1 yds ◀6.3 yds
Sack rate allowed4.5% ◀8.3%
YPC (rush)3.7 yds4.1 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.001+0.016 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesHOUNYG
EPA allowed / play-0.125 ◀+0.080
Air yds allowed8.0 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed3.7 yds ◀5.4 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed18.0% ◀19.5%
Sack rate gen8.4% ◀6.0%
TO forced rate2.6% ◀2.0%
RZ TD rate allowed25.5% ◀29.6%
Trending — Last 8 GamesHOUNYG
OFF EPA/play+0.001+0.016 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.066 ◀-0.137
Rush EPA/carry-0.119-0.043 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.109 ◀-0.019
Avg air yards9.5 yds ◀8.4 yds
3rd down conv%42.9%45.0% ◀
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att+0.059 ◀+0.057
Margin Model DriversHOUNYG
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.78 pts▲ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.92 pts▲ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.70 pts▲ HOU
run_left_matchup_17+0.69 pts▲ HOU
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.44 pts▲ HOU
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.43 pts▲ HOU
away_run_left_matchup_17-0.42 pts▼ NYG
Sack rate gen edge+0.42 pts▲ HOU
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ HOU
QB completion % edge+0.30 pts▲ HOU
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+10.0
O/U
42.5
at
PIT at NO
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-18 to +26
NO Win Prob
60.0%
PIT Win Prob
40.0%
Projected
23–19
Exp. Margin
+4.5
Exp. Total
42.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNOPIT
EPA / play-0.090-0.061 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.021 ◀-0.109
Avg air yards8.3 yds ◀6.6 yds
Avg YAC4.4 yds6.4 yds ◀
Deep pass rate17.5% ◀15.6%
Pass rate56.9%59.2% ◀
Shotgun rate74.7% ◀67.8%
Rush EPA / carry-0.165-0.011 ◀
3rd down conv %40.3% ◀35.8%
Red zone TD %24.8% ◀14.5%
Turnover rate3.0%1.9% ◀
QB comp %61.8% ◀57.8%
QB YPA6.4 yds ◀5.9 yds
Sack rate allowed6.9%5.9% ◀
YPC (rush)3.5 yds4.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.034 ◀-0.104
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNOPIT
EPA allowed / play-0.048 ◀-0.034
Air yds allowed7.9 yds7.3 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.2 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.1 yds ◀5.3 yds
Deep rate allowed17.1%15.3% ◀
Sack rate gen7.5% ◀7.0%
TO forced rate2.1%2.8% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed18.7% ◀19.6%
Trending — Last 8 GamesNOPIT
OFF EPA/play-0.034 ◀-0.104
QB EPA/att-0.020 ◀-0.148
Rush EPA/carry-0.060-0.044 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.007-0.011 ◀
Avg air yards7.9 yds ◀7.7 yds
3rd down conv%40.5% ◀33.6%
Turnover rate3.0%2.0% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.020 ◀-0.163
Margin Model DriversNOPIT
away_pdm_matchup_17+1.54 pts▲ NO
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.05 pts▲ NO
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.67 pts▼ PIT
Turnover rate edge-0.61 pts▼ PIT
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.59 pts▲ NO
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.56 pts▲ NO
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.45 pts▲ NO
Sack rate gen edge+0.40 pts▲ NO
Temperature-0.38 pts▼ PIT
QB completion % edge+0.36 pts▲ NO
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.5
O/U
44.5
at
SF at ATL
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-24 to +17
ATL Win Prob
38.7%
SF Win Prob
61.3%
Projected
20–24
Exp. Margin
-3.6
Exp. Total
44.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesATLSF
EPA / play-0.040+0.131 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.096+0.206 ◀
Avg air yards7.2 yds7.7 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.0 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate19.1% ◀15.7%
Pass rate51.2%51.7% ◀
Shotgun rate65.7% ◀51.6%
Rush EPA / carry-0.069-0.003 ◀
3rd down conv %31.1%52.1% ◀
Red zone TD %28.1% ◀25.6%
Turnover rate2.1%2.0% ◀
QB comp %59.0%65.4% ◀
QB YPA7.5 yds7.6 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed5.5%3.4% ◀
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.056+0.123 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesATLSF
EPA allowed / play+0.001 ◀+0.036
Air yds allowed8.1 yds7.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.2 yds
YAC allowed5.1 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed17.8%17.6% ◀
Sack rate gen7.8% ◀4.9%
TO forced rate1.9% ◀1.6%
RZ TD rate allowed17.1% ◀22.9%
Trending — Last 8 GamesATLSF
OFF EPA/play-0.056+0.123 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.149+0.223 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.075+0.006 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.045 ◀-0.034
Avg air yards6.6 yds8.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%37.8%53.3% ◀
Turnover rate2.5%2.1% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.079+0.228 ◀
Margin Model DriversATLSF
Net EPA edge (L17)-3.61 pts▼ SF
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.78 pts▼ SF
3rd & long conv edge+0.65 pts▲ ATL
3rd & medium conv edge-0.47 pts▼ SF
QB INT rate edge+0.47 pts▲ ATL
run_mid_matchup_17+0.31 pts▲ ATL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.30 pts▼ SF
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ ATL
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.23 pts▼ SF
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.23 pts▼ SF
Rest
7d
6d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.5
O/U
50.5
at
TB at CAR
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-25 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-18 to +24
CAR Win Prob
58.2%
TB Win Prob
41.8%
Projected
22–19
Exp. Margin
+2.8
Exp. Total
42.2
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCARTB
EPA / play-0.021 ◀-0.092
QB EPA / att+0.042 ◀-0.073
Avg air yards7.6 yds ◀7.4 yds
Avg YAC5.0 yds5.5 yds ◀
Deep pass rate16.3% ◀15.7%
Pass rate54.7% ◀52.2%
Shotgun rate66.2%66.3% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.103+0.013 ◀
3rd down conv %35.0%40.3% ◀
Red zone TD %20.9% ◀17.0%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀2.5%
QB comp %59.0% ◀58.6%
QB YPA6.5 yds ◀6.3 yds
Sack rate allowed6.1% ◀7.4%
YPC (rush)3.9 yds4.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.000 ◀-0.090
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCARTB
EPA allowed / play+0.045-0.010 ◀
Air yds allowed7.9 yds7.6 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.9 yds
Deep rate allowed16.5% ◀16.6%
Sack rate gen5.9% ◀4.9%
TO forced rate2.3%2.4% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed23.8% ◀26.2%
Trending — Last 8 GamesCARTB
OFF EPA/play-0.000 ◀-0.090
QB EPA/att+0.023 ◀-0.085
Rush EPA/carry-0.142-0.009 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.002-0.050 ◀
Avg air yards8.0 yds ◀7.2 yds
3rd down conv%32.5%41.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.1% ◀3.1%
Pass EPA/att+0.019 ◀-0.134
Margin Model DriversCARTB
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.92 pts▲ CAR
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.91 pts▼ TB
away_run_mid_matchup_17-0.64 pts▼ TB
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.54 pts▲ CAR
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.44 pts▼ TB
pdm_matchup_17-0.37 pts▼ TB
Net EPA edge (L17)+0.36 pts▲ CAR
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.36 pts▲ CAR
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.34 pts▲ CAR
3rd down conv edge-0.30 pts▼ TB
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
44.5
at
DAL at PHI
2026 Week 7 · 2026-10-26 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-21 to +22
PHI Win Prob
48.9%
DAL Win Prob
51.1%
Projected
23–22
Exp. Margin
+0.5
Exp. Total
46.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesPHIDAL
EPA / play-0.040+0.065 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.049+0.164 ◀
Avg air yards8.5 yds ◀8.2 yds
Avg YAC4.1 yds5.0 yds ◀
Deep pass rate18.8% ◀17.0%
Pass rate53.0%58.5% ◀
Shotgun rate73.1% ◀63.7%
Rush EPA / carry-0.072-0.035 ◀
3rd down conv %36.8%42.4% ◀
Red zone TD %21.9% ◀20.6%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀2.1%
QB comp %55.3%63.0% ◀
QB YPA5.4 yds7.2 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed5.2%4.0% ◀
YPC (rush)4.2 yds ◀4.2 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.125+0.075 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesPHIDAL
EPA allowed / play-0.050 ◀+0.159
Air yds allowed7.8 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.7 yds5.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.1% ◀18.5%
Sack rate gen6.4% ◀4.9%
TO forced rate1.8% ◀1.0%
RZ TD rate allowed19.1% ◀24.9%
Trending — Last 8 GamesPHIDAL
OFF EPA/play-0.125+0.075 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.049+0.203 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.109+0.004 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.068 ◀+0.167
Avg air yards8.0 yds ◀7.8 yds
3rd down conv%35.0%44.3% ◀
Turnover rate1.3% ◀1.9%
Pass EPA/att-0.155+0.131 ◀
Margin Model DriversPHIDAL
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.12 pts▲ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.44 pts▼ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-1.27 pts▼ DAL
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.65 pts▼ DAL
psl_matchup_17+0.47 pts▲ PHI
run_right_matchup_17+0.43 pts▲ PHI
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ DAL
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.41 pts▼ DAL
pdm_matchup_17+0.35 pts▲ PHI
TO forced rate edge+0.31 pts▲ PHI
Rest
8d
8d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
44.5
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.