2026 Week 8 Projections
14 games · 10,000 simulations each
· generated Oct 29, 2026
| Date | Matchup | QBs | Proj score | Favorite | Home win | Total | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 |
CAR
at
GB
|
Bryce Young / Jordan Love | 19.2 – 25.0 | GB 5.8 | 66% | 44.3 | +3.5 | +2.3 |
| 11-01 |
ARI
at
DAL
|
Jacoby Brissett / Dak Prescott | 24.2 – 29.4 | DAL 5.2 | 67% | 53.7 | +7.0 | -1.8 |
| 11-01 |
ATL
at
TB
|
Michael Penix Jr. / Baker Mayfield | 21.0 – 21.1 | TB 0.1 | 49% | 42.1 | +2.5 | -2.4 |
| 11-01 |
BAL
at
BUF
|
Lamar Jackson / Josh Allen | 22.3 – 25.6 | BUF 3.3 | 59% | 47.9 | +3.0 | +0.3 |
| 11-01 |
CLE
at
PIT
|
Deshaun Watson / Aaron Rodgers | 17.5 – 21.3 | PIT 3.8 | 61% | 38.8 | +3.5 | +0.3 |
| 11-01 |
IND
at
JAX
|
Daniel Jones / Trevor Lawrence | 15.1 – 28.4 | JAX 13.4 | 85% | 43.5 | +10.0 | +3.4 |
| 11-01 |
KC
at
DEN
|
Patrick Mahomes / Bo Nix | 21.8 – 20.2 | KC 1.6 | 45% | 42.0 | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| 11-01 |
LAC
at
LA
|
Justin Herbert / Matthew Stafford | 18.4 – 27.8 | LA 9.4 | 75% | 46.3 | +6.5 | +2.9 |
| 11-01 |
LV
at
NYJ
|
Kirk Cousins / Geno Smith | 20.9 – 23.2 | NYJ 2.3 | 56% | 44.0 | +1.5 | +0.8 |
| 11-01 |
MIN
at
DET
|
Kyler Murray / Jared Goff | 21.2 – 23.8 | DET 2.7 | 60% | 45.0 | +3.0 | -0.3 |
| 11-01 |
NE
at
MIA
|
Drake Maye / Malik Willis | 24.0 – 18.1 | NE 6.0 | 31% | 42.1 | -7.0 | +1.0 |
| 11-01 |
PHI
at
WAS
|
Tanner McKee / Jayden Daniels | 21.3 – 20.6 | PHI 0.8 | 47% | 41.8 | +6.0 | -6.8⚡ FADE |
| 11-01 |
TEN
at
CIN
|
Cam Ward / Joe Burrow | 16.8 – 30.5 | CIN 13.7 | 84% | 47.4 | +11.5 | +2.2 |
| 11-02 |
CHI
at
SEA
|
Caleb Williams / Sam Darnold | 20.0 – 27.0 | SEA 7.1 | 69% | 47.0 | +3.0 | +4.1 |
Market is the spread from the home team's perspective — positive means the home side is favored. Edge is the model's margin minus the market's; FADE marks the games where the two disagree on the winner.
at
CAR at GB
2026 Week 8 · 2026-10-29 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-14 to +26
GB Win Prob
66.4%
CAR Win Prob
33.6%
Projected
25–19
Exp. Margin
+5.8
Exp. Total
44.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesGBCAR
EPA / play+0.046 ◀-0.033
QB EPA / att+0.196 ◀-0.001
Avg air yards9.3 yds ◀7.5 yds
Avg YAC4.7 yds5.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate22.1% ◀15.9%
Pass rate55.1%55.3% ◀
Shotgun rate64.9%67.0% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.147-0.084 ◀
3rd down conv %41.4% ◀36.5%
Red zone TD %19.9%21.2% ◀
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.4%
QB comp %59.2% ◀57.7%
QB YPA7.0 yds ◀6.4 yds
Sack rate allowed5.8% ◀6.5%
YPC (rush)3.8 yds4.0 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.023+0.030 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesGBCAR
EPA allowed / play+0.007 ◀+0.072
Air yds allowed7.3 yds ◀7.4 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀5.0 yds
Deep rate allowed18.0%15.6% ◀
Sack rate gen5.2% ◀5.1%
TO forced rate2.1%2.2% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed17.5% ◀24.9%
Trending — Last 8 GamesGBCAR
OFF EPA/play+0.023+0.030 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.163 ◀+0.045
Rush EPA/carry-0.262-0.080 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.033 ◀+0.031
Avg air yards9.2 yds ◀8.6 yds
3rd down conv%33.0%38.2% ◀
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.3%
Pass EPA/att+0.168 ◀+0.056
Margin Model DriversGBCAR
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.77 pts▲ GB
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.73 pts▼ CAR
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.71 pts▼ CAR
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.46 pts▲ GB
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.43 pts▲ GB
pdm_matchup_17+0.35 pts▲ GB
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.29 pts▲ GB
away_pdl_matchup_17-0.29 pts▼ CAR
pdl_matchup_17+0.28 pts▲ GB
Temperature-0.27 pts▼ CAR
Rest
4d
4d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
46.5
at
ARI at DAL
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-16 to +27
DAL Win Prob
66.5%
ARI Win Prob
33.5%
Projected
29–24
Exp. Margin
+5.2
Exp. Total
53.7
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDALARI
EPA / play+0.078 ◀-0.038
QB EPA / att+0.160 ◀-0.036
Avg air yards8.5 yds ◀7.1 yds
Avg YAC4.8 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate18.1% ◀14.4%
Pass rate58.0%62.4% ◀
Shotgun rate62.8%65.9% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.019 ◀-0.070
3rd down conv %43.1% ◀38.2%
Red zone TD %19.7%19.8% ◀
Turnover rate2.1%1.9% ◀
QB comp %61.9% ◀60.0%
QB YPA7.2 yds ◀5.9 yds
Sack rate allowed3.9% ◀6.3%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.088 ◀-0.042
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDALARI
EPA allowed / play+0.171+0.119 ◀
Air yds allowed8.1 yds ◀8.5 yds
YPC allowed4.7 yds4.6 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.7 yds ◀5.9 yds
Deep rate allowed17.7% ◀18.9%
Sack rate gen4.6%5.5% ◀
TO forced rate0.9%1.9% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed24.3%22.5% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesDALARI
OFF EPA/play+0.088 ◀-0.042
QB EPA/att+0.208 ◀-0.057
Rush EPA/carry+0.014 ◀-0.070
DEF EPA allowed+0.141+0.113 ◀
Avg air yards8.2 yds ◀6.8 yds
3rd down conv%46.9% ◀36.8%
Turnover rate1.9%1.8% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.147 ◀-0.041
Margin Model DriversDALARI
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.96 pts▲ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.82 pts▲ DAL
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.67 pts▼ ARI
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.58 pts▲ DAL
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.43 pts▲ DAL
3rd & medium conv edge-0.35 pts▼ ARI
pdm_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ DAL
psm_matchup_17-0.22 pts▼ ARI
Pass EPA/att edge (L17)-0.21 pts▼ ARI
psl_matchup_17-0.20 pts▼ ARI
Rest
6d
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+7.0
O/U
54.5
at
ATL at TB
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-21 to +21
TB Win Prob
48.8%
ATL Win Prob
51.2%
Projected
21–21
Exp. Margin
+0.1
Exp. Total
42.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesTBATL
EPA / play-0.055-0.017 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.037+0.106 ◀
Avg air yards7.0 yds ◀7.0 yds
Avg YAC5.6 yds6.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.9%18.3% ◀
Pass rate48.8%50.7% ◀
Shotgun rate64.0% ◀63.9%
Rush EPA / carry+0.014 ◀-0.046
3rd down conv %42.2% ◀32.0%
Red zone TD %18.0%27.7% ◀
Turnover rate2.4%2.0% ◀
QB comp %59.2%59.8% ◀
QB YPA6.3 yds7.4 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed7.0%5.3% ◀
YPC (rush)4.4 yds4.6 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.067-0.065 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesTBATL
EPA allowed / play-0.018 ◀-0.007
Air yds allowed7.7 yds ◀8.3 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.1 yds
YAC allowed5.8 yds4.9 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.4% ◀18.1%
Sack rate gen4.9%7.9% ◀
TO forced rate2.6% ◀2.2%
RZ TD rate allowed24.1%17.7% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesTBATL
OFF EPA/play-0.067-0.065 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.016+0.204 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.005 ◀-0.107
DEF EPA allowed-0.097 ◀-0.031
Avg air yards6.5 yds ◀6.4 yds
3rd down conv%43.0% ◀37.2%
Turnover rate2.7%2.5% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.079-0.076 ◀
Margin Model DriversTBATL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.71 pts▼ ATL
3rd & medium conv edge+0.80 pts▲ TB
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.75 pts▲ TB
Sack rate gen edge-0.63 pts▼ ATL
home_pass_rate_17+0.56 pts▲ TB
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.55 pts▼ ATL
QB completion % edge+0.36 pts▲ TB
pdl_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ TB
run_mid_succ_17-0.28 pts▼ ATL
pdm_matchup_17+0.26 pts▲ TB
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
44.5
at
BAL at BUF
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-19 to +26
BUF Win Prob
59.1%
BAL Win Prob
40.9%
Projected
25–22
Exp. Margin
+3.3
Exp. Total
47.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesBUFBAL
EPA / play+0.144 ◀+0.068
QB EPA / att+0.168 ◀+0.114
Avg air yards7.8 yds8.4 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.5 yds ◀5.9 yds
Deep pass rate18.6% ◀16.7%
Pass rate49.1% ◀43.9%
Shotgun rate49.1%60.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.050 ◀+0.032
3rd down conv %46.2% ◀40.0%
Red zone TD %21.9% ◀19.9%
Turnover rate2.5%1.8% ◀
QB comp %63.2% ◀59.2%
QB YPA7.6 yds8.2 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.1% ◀7.8%
YPC (rush)4.8 yds5.0 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.192 ◀+0.091
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesBUFBAL
EPA allowed / play+0.034-0.031 ◀
Air yds allowed7.7 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed4.4 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀5.0 yds
Deep rate allowed18.2%17.1% ◀
Sack rate gen3.8%5.6% ◀
TO forced rate2.1%2.3% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed22.3%17.3% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesBUFBAL
OFF EPA/play+0.192 ◀+0.091
QB EPA/att+0.238 ◀+0.153
Rush EPA/carry+0.092 ◀-0.071
DEF EPA allowed+0.101+0.016 ◀
Avg air yards8.8 yds ◀8.5 yds
3rd down conv%48.7% ◀38.9%
Turnover rate2.9%1.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.249+0.266 ◀
Margin Model DriversBUFBAL
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.18 pts▲ BUF
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.88 pts▲ BUF
Turnover rate edge-0.54 pts▼ BAL
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.51 pts▲ BUF
pdl_matchup_17+0.43 pts▲ BUF
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.41 pts▲ BUF
Sack rate gen edge-0.37 pts▼ BAL
QB completion % edge+0.29 pts▲ BUF
pdm_matchup_17+0.28 pts▲ BUF
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.27 pts▼ BAL
Rest
14d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
54.5
at
CLE at PIT
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-18 to +24
PIT Win Prob
61.1%
CLE Win Prob
38.9%
Projected
21–17
Exp. Margin
+3.8
Exp. Total
38.8
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesPITCLE
EPA / play-0.048 ◀-0.153
QB EPA / att-0.093 ◀-0.101
Avg air yards6.8 yds7.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.5 yds ◀6.0 yds
Deep pass rate16.4% ◀14.5%
Pass rate58.7% ◀51.0%
Shotgun rate68.2%71.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.000 ◀-0.084
3rd down conv %37.5% ◀32.3%
Red zone TD %14.1%16.5% ◀
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.7%
QB comp %57.7% ◀56.8%
QB YPA6.0 yds ◀5.7 yds
Sack rate allowed5.9% ◀9.1%
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.096-0.061 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesPITCLE
EPA allowed / play-0.023-0.069 ◀
Air yds allowed7.0 yds ◀8.1 yds
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.4 yds ◀5.6 yds
Deep rate allowed14.6% ◀17.9%
Sack rate gen6.7%8.6% ◀
TO forced rate2.5% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed18.7% ◀20.3%
Trending — Last 8 GamesPITCLE
OFF EPA/play-0.096-0.061 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.159-0.014 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.022 ◀-0.066
DEF EPA allowed-0.020-0.038 ◀
Avg air yards7.7 yds ◀7.7 yds
3rd down conv%34.4% ◀32.7%
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.1%
Pass EPA/att-0.174-0.097 ◀
Margin Model DriversPITCLE
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.07 pts▲ PIT
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.98 pts▼ CLE
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.66 pts▼ CLE
Sack rate gen edge-0.63 pts▼ CLE
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.50 pts▼ CLE
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ PIT
QB completion % edge+0.35 pts▲ PIT
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.33 pts▲ PIT
away_pace_17+0.32 pts▲ PIT
Pass EPA/att edge (L17)-0.30 pts▼ CLE
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.5
O/U
39.5
at
IND at JAX
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-7 to +35
JAX Win Prob
84.9%
IND Win Prob
15.1%
Projected
28–14
Exp. Margin
+13.4
Exp. Total
43.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesJAXIND
EPA / play+0.089 ◀-0.048
QB EPA / att+0.189 ◀+0.009
Avg air yards8.9 yds ◀7.5 yds
Avg YAC4.9 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate20.0% ◀16.6%
Pass rate50.5%54.5% ◀
Shotgun rate58.5%69.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.038+0.039 ◀
3rd down conv %45.9% ◀39.4%
Red zone TD %24.0% ◀22.3%
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.7%
QB comp %59.9% ◀59.9%
QB YPA7.5 yds ◀6.5 yds
Sack rate allowed5.3% ◀6.1%
YPC (rush)3.9 yds4.2 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.150 ◀-0.072
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesJAXIND
EPA allowed / play-0.106 ◀+0.025
Air yds allowed7.8 yds ◀8.5 yds
YPC allowed3.6 yds ◀4.1 yds
YAC allowed4.3 yds ◀5.2 yds
Deep rate allowed16.3% ◀18.6%
Sack rate gen5.2% ◀5.1%
TO forced rate2.7% ◀1.3%
RZ TD rate allowed17.6% ◀21.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesJAXIND
OFF EPA/play+0.150 ◀-0.072
QB EPA/att+0.264 ◀-0.148
Rush EPA/carry+0.003+0.034 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.044 ◀+0.026
Avg air yards8.6 yds ◀7.6 yds
3rd down conv%49.2% ◀41.2%
Turnover rate1.3% ◀2.9%
Pass EPA/att+0.290 ◀-0.173
Margin Model DriversJAXIND
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.43 pts▲ JAX
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+2.28 pts▲ JAX
Net EPA edge (L8)+2.02 pts▲ JAX
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.56 pts▲ JAX
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.52 pts▼ IND
pdm_matchup_17+0.45 pts▲ JAX
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.34 pts▼ IND
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.30 pts▼ IND
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.29 pts▲ JAX
3rd & medium conv edge+0.27 pts▲ JAX
Rest
14d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+10.0
O/U
46.5
at
KC at DEN
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-22 to +19
DEN Win Prob
45.2%
KC Win Prob
54.8%
Projected
20–21
Exp. Margin
-1.6
Exp. Total
42.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDENKC
EPA / play-0.028+0.005 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.020+0.139 ◀
Avg air yards6.2 yds7.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.7 yds6.3 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.7%17.4% ◀
Pass rate56.7% ◀54.9%
Shotgun rate66.0%74.0% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.073+0.017 ◀
3rd down conv %37.7% ◀36.1%
Red zone TD %24.7% ◀16.5%
Turnover rate1.5% ◀1.6%
QB comp %58.7%60.5% ◀
QB YPA5.9 yds7.1 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed4.3% ◀6.4%
YPC (rush)3.8 yds4.4 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.083-0.004 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDENKC
EPA allowed / play-0.072-0.076 ◀
Air yds allowed8.3 yds6.4 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds3.6 yds ◀
YAC allowed4.6 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep rate allowed17.0%15.1% ◀
Sack rate gen8.0% ◀4.8%
TO forced rate2.0% ◀1.9%
RZ TD rate allowed18.8%17.1% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesDENKC
OFF EPA/play-0.083-0.004 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.039-0.006 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.055+0.025 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.061-0.105 ◀
Avg air yards5.8 yds6.2 yds ◀
3rd down conv%29.9%35.5% ◀
Turnover rate1.6%1.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.121-0.052 ◀
Margin Model DriversDENKC
3rd & medium conv edge-0.83 pts▼ KC
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.58 pts▼ KC
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.58 pts▼ KC
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.55 pts▼ KC
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.42 pts▼ KC
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.37 pts▼ KC
psm_matchup_17-0.26 pts▼ KC
away_psm_matchup_17+0.25 pts▲ DEN
psl_matchup_17-0.23 pts▼ KC
pdm_matchup_17+0.21 pts▲ DEN
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-1.5
O/U
40.5
at
LAC at LA
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-13 to +32
LA Win Prob
74.7%
LAC Win Prob
25.3%
Projected
28–18
Exp. Margin
+9.4
Exp. Total
46.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLALAC
EPA / play+0.122 ◀-0.135
QB EPA / att+0.161 ◀-0.106
Avg air yards9.2 yds ◀8.3 yds
Avg YAC5.3 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate23.3% ◀15.8%
Pass rate58.3% ◀48.2%
Shotgun rate47.2%70.1% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.028 ◀-0.080
3rd down conv %38.2%39.8% ◀
Red zone TD %25.2% ◀18.7%
Turnover rate1.9% ◀2.6%
QB comp %61.8% ◀56.0%
QB YPA7.5 yds ◀6.2 yds
Sack rate allowed3.5% ◀10.2%
YPC (rush)4.8 yds ◀4.1 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.083 ◀-0.255
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLALAC
EPA allowed / play-0.015-0.128 ◀
Air yds allowed7.6 yds7.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds3.9 yds ◀
YAC allowed6.0 yds6.0 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.0%13.6% ◀
Sack rate gen5.3%7.4% ◀
TO forced rate1.7%2.7% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed17.5%12.9% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesLALAC
OFF EPA/play+0.083 ◀-0.255
QB EPA/att+0.115 ◀-0.272
Rush EPA/carry-0.024 ◀-0.121
DEF EPA allowed-0.030-0.057 ◀
Avg air yards8.5 yds ◀8.1 yds
3rd down conv%40.1% ◀30.8%
Turnover rate2.1% ◀3.6%
Pass EPA/att+0.125 ◀-0.369
Margin Model DriversLALAC
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.88 pts▲ LA
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.70 pts▲ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.90 pts▲ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.83 pts▲ LA
pdm_matchup_17-0.77 pts▼ LAC
Sack rate gen edge-0.73 pts▼ LAC
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.55 pts▲ LA
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.53 pts▲ LA
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.51 pts▲ LA
away_psm_matchup_17-0.49 pts▼ LAC
Rest
7d
14d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+6.5
O/U
45.5
at
LV at NYJ
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-19 to +23
NYJ Win Prob
55.8%
LV Win Prob
44.2%
Projected
23–21
Exp. Margin
+2.3
Exp. Total
44.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJLV
EPA / play-0.091 ◀-0.145
QB EPA / att-0.067+0.027 ◀
Avg air yards6.5 yds6.7 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.4 yds ◀4.8 yds
Deep pass rate13.0%13.3% ◀
Pass rate50.1%58.2% ◀
Shotgun rate64.5% ◀63.0%
Rush EPA / carry-0.097 ◀-0.257
3rd down conv %35.0%35.2% ◀
Red zone TD %11.8%19.6% ◀
Turnover rate1.9% ◀1.9%
QB comp %61.1% ◀59.3%
QB YPA6.3 yds6.6 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.2%8.0% ◀
YPC (rush)4.1 yds ◀3.1 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.022 ◀-0.070
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNYJLV
EPA allowed / play+0.103+0.018 ◀
Air yds allowed7.4 yds ◀8.2 yds
YPC allowed4.4 yds4.3 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.6 yds ◀5.6 yds
Deep rate allowed17.3% ◀17.8%
Sack rate gen5.4%6.3% ◀
TO forced rate0.9%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed22.5% ◀27.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesNYJLV
OFF EPA/play-0.022 ◀-0.070
QB EPA/att+0.058+0.090 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.148 ◀-0.305
DEF EPA allowed+0.033-0.016 ◀
Avg air yards6.3 yds8.2 yds ◀
3rd down conv%34.8%38.0% ◀
Turnover rate1.0% ◀2.0%
Pass EPA/att+0.039+0.044 ◀
Margin Model DriversNYJLV
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.73 pts▼ LV
QB completion % edge+0.59 pts▲ NYJ
psm_matchup_17-0.46 pts▼ LV
pdl_matchup_17+0.46 pts▲ NYJ
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.41 pts▲ NYJ
home_pace_17-0.39 pts▼ LV
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.35 pts▼ LV
away_pace_17+0.33 pts▲ NYJ
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.31 pts▼ LV
away_psr_matchup_17-0.30 pts▼ LV
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+1.5
O/U
45.5
at
MIN at DET
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-18 to +24
DET Win Prob
59.6%
MIN Win Prob
40.4%
Projected
24–21
Exp. Margin
+2.7
Exp. Total
45.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesDETMIN
EPA / play+0.075 ◀-0.139
QB EPA / att+0.184 ◀+0.060
Avg air yards6.9 yds7.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.2 yds ◀4.8 yds
Deep pass rate15.8%17.7% ◀
Pass rate57.7% ◀49.0%
Shotgun rate52.4%56.5% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.080 ◀-0.089
3rd down conv %39.0% ◀31.8%
Red zone TD %21.3% ◀20.1%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.5%
QB comp %61.9%64.5% ◀
QB YPA7.5 yds ◀6.4 yds
Sack rate allowed5.9% ◀9.8%
YPC (rush)4.4 yds ◀4.3 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.068 ◀-0.114
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesDETMIN
EPA allowed / play+0.050-0.160 ◀
Air yds allowed9.7 yds7.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.3 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed3.8 yds ◀5.4 yds
Deep rate allowed21.6%14.1% ◀
Sack rate gen7.1%9.8% ◀
TO forced rate1.3%2.6% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed20.0%10.8% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesDETMIN
OFF EPA/play+0.068 ◀-0.114
QB EPA/att+0.234 ◀-0.027
Rush EPA/carry-0.166-0.132 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.069-0.251 ◀
Avg air yards7.5 yds ◀6.8 yds
3rd down conv%40.1% ◀31.8%
Turnover rate1.9%1.0% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.239 ◀-0.181
Margin Model DriversDETMIN
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.17 pts▼ MIN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.80 pts▲ DET
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.70 pts▼ MIN
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.70 pts▼ MIN
Sack rate gen edge-0.66 pts▼ MIN
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.61 pts▲ DET
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.41 pts▼ MIN
pdl_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ DET
QB completion % edge-0.39 pts▼ MIN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.36 pts▲ DET
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
46.5
at
NE at MIA
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-28 to +15
MIA Win Prob
31.3%
NE Win Prob
68.7%
Projected
17–23
Exp. Margin
-6.0
Exp. Total
42.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesMIANE
EPA / play-0.055+0.065 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.080+0.132 ◀
Avg air yards7.9 yds9.6 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.4 yds ◀5.3 yds
Deep pass rate17.7%21.7% ◀
Pass rate46.3%50.1% ◀
Shotgun rate63.2% ◀58.7%
Rush EPA / carry-0.052-0.017 ◀
3rd down conv %31.9%39.1% ◀
Red zone TD %20.1%26.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.6%2.5% ◀
QB comp %55.4%61.0% ◀
QB YPA6.9 yds7.7 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed7.8%7.3% ◀
YPC (rush)4.7 yds ◀4.6 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.072+0.009 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesMIANE
EPA allowed / play+0.064-0.078 ◀
Air yds allowed7.3 yds ◀7.5 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.4 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed18.3%15.3% ◀
Sack rate gen5.1%6.5% ◀
TO forced rate1.7%2.1% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed28.4%20.5% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesMIANE
OFF EPA/play-0.072+0.009 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.013+0.047 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.025 ◀-0.051
DEF EPA allowed+0.165+0.017 ◀
Avg air yards8.9 yds9.3 yds ◀
3rd down conv%38.3%38.9% ◀
Turnover rate2.3% ◀3.4%
Pass EPA/att-0.130+0.048 ◀
Margin Model DriversMIANE
Net EPA edge (L17)-3.94 pts▼ NE
3rd & long conv edge+0.71 pts▲ MIA
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.55 pts▼ NE
away_pass_rate_17+0.50 pts▲ MIA
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.45 pts▼ NE
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ MIA
QB completion % edge+0.43 pts▲ MIA
3rd & medium conv edge+0.37 pts▲ MIA
home_pass_rate_17+0.37 pts▲ MIA
home_pace_17-0.34 pts▼ NE
Rest
7d
10d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-7.0
O/U
43.5
at
PHI at WAS
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-23 to +21
WAS Win Prob
47.1%
PHI Win Prob
52.9%
Projected
21–21
Exp. Margin
-0.8
Exp. Total
41.8
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesWASPHI
EPA / play-0.034 ◀-0.067
QB EPA / att+0.047 ◀-0.060
Avg air yards8.7 yds ◀8.4 yds
Avg YAC4.9 yds ◀4.2 yds
Deep pass rate19.8% ◀18.4%
Pass rate49.5%54.2% ◀
Shotgun rate79.6% ◀73.4%
Rush EPA / carry-0.015 ◀-0.089
3rd down conv %35.0%37.8% ◀
Red zone TD %21.6%21.8% ◀
Turnover rate1.8%1.7% ◀
QB comp %58.5% ◀57.0%
QB YPA6.3 yds ◀5.5 yds
Sack rate allowed6.5%4.7% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.009 ◀-0.114
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesWASPHI
EPA allowed / play+0.154-0.036 ◀
Air yds allowed7.5 yds ◀8.0 yds
YPC allowed4.6 yds4.0 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.7 yds5.6 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.1% ◀16.8%
Sack rate gen5.6% ◀5.5%
TO forced rate1.5%1.8% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed27.4%18.6% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesWASPHI
OFF EPA/play+0.009 ◀-0.114
QB EPA/att-0.064-0.060 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.042 ◀-0.095
DEF EPA allowed+0.069 ◀+0.111
Avg air yards8.5 yds ◀7.5 yds
3rd down conv%32.1%34.9% ◀
Turnover rate0.8% ◀1.3%
Pass EPA/att+0.042 ◀-0.148
Margin Model DriversWASPHI
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.19 pts▼ PHI
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.81 pts▲ WAS
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.74 pts▲ WAS
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.68 pts▼ PHI
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.41 pts▲ WAS
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.40 pts▲ WAS
DEF red zone TD% edge-0.33 pts▼ PHI
away_psr_matchup_17-0.26 pts▼ PHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.24 pts▲ WAS
QB completion % edge+0.19 pts▲ WAS
Rest
13d
6d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+6.0
O/U
40.5
at
TEN at CIN
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-01 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-8 to +35
CIN Win Prob
84.1%
TEN Win Prob
15.9%
Projected
30–17
Exp. Margin
+13.7
Exp. Total
47.4
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCINTEN
EPA / play+0.089 ◀-0.122
QB EPA / att+0.156 ◀-0.144
Avg air yards7.3 yds ◀6.8 yds
Avg YAC4.7 yds5.0 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.4%15.8% ◀
Pass rate60.7% ◀55.7%
Shotgun rate78.3% ◀70.3%
Rush EPA / carry+0.011 ◀-0.045
3rd down conv %48.7% ◀33.5%
Red zone TD %32.1% ◀19.9%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀1.7%
QB comp %66.7% ◀57.6%
QB YPA6.9 yds ◀5.5 yds
Sack rate allowed4.1% ◀5.7%
YPC (rush)4.2 yds4.2 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.117 ◀-0.159
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCINTEN
EPA allowed / play+0.064 ◀+0.086
Air yds allowed8.3 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed5.2 yds4.2 yds ◀
YAC allowed7.0 yds5.7 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.3% ◀18.3%
Sack rate gen7.6% ◀7.1%
TO forced rate2.5% ◀1.0%
RZ TD rate allowed15.7% ◀25.2%
Trending — Last 8 GamesCINTEN
OFF EPA/play+0.117 ◀-0.159
QB EPA/att+0.194 ◀-0.156
Rush EPA/carry-0.026 ◀-0.070
DEF EPA allowed-0.042 ◀+0.081
Avg air yards6.9 yds ◀6.5 yds
3rd down conv%52.3% ◀33.9%
Turnover rate1.4% ◀2.5%
Pass EPA/att+0.190 ◀-0.215
Margin Model DriversCINTEN
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.56 pts▲ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.74 pts▲ CIN
Net EPA edge (L8)+1.71 pts▲ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+1.62 pts▲ CIN
away_psl_matchup_17-1.08 pts▼ TEN
pdm_matchup_17-0.74 pts▼ TEN
EPA/play edge (L8)+0.68 pts▲ CIN
EPA/play edge (L17)+0.50 pts▲ CIN
QB completion % edge+0.36 pts▲ CIN
TO forced rate edge+0.33 pts▲ CIN
Rest
7d
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+11.5
O/U
46.5
at
CHI at SEA
2026 Week 8 · 2026-11-02 ·
10,000 simulations · 90% margin range
-14 to +30
SEA Win Prob
69.1%
CHI Win Prob
30.9%
Projected
27–20
Exp. Margin
+7.1
Exp. Total
47.0
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSEACHI
EPA / play+0.020+0.059 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.050+0.121 ◀
Avg air yards7.1 yds8.4 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.9 yds ◀5.3 yds
Deep pass rate14.0%20.6% ◀
Pass rate49.9%52.0% ◀
Shotgun rate49.0%52.8% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.090-0.011 ◀
3rd down conv %38.0%44.1% ◀
Red zone TD %17.8% ◀16.9%
Turnover rate2.1%1.9% ◀
QB comp %60.3% ◀56.3%
QB YPA7.2 yds ◀6.7 yds
Sack rate allowed6.6%4.3% ◀
YPC (rush)4.2 yds4.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.043+0.037 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSEACHI
EPA allowed / play-0.188 ◀+0.008
Air yds allowed6.5 yds ◀8.7 yds
YPC allowed3.8 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.0 yds ◀5.3 yds
Deep rate allowed16.4% ◀18.7%
Sack rate gen6.4% ◀6.3%
TO forced rate3.0% ◀2.2%
RZ TD rate allowed26.9%21.0% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesSEACHI
OFF EPA/play-0.043+0.037 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.074+0.215 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.185-0.085 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.159 ◀-0.014
Avg air yards7.3 yds7.4 yds ◀
3rd down conv%35.3%44.0% ◀
Turnover rate2.9%2.7% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.072+0.126 ◀
Margin Model DriversSEACHI
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.66 pts▲ SEA
away_pdm_matchup_17+1.15 pts▲ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.01 pts▼ CHI
run_mid_succ_17-0.44 pts▼ CHI
away_pace_17-0.44 pts▼ CHI
away_psm_matchup_17+0.37 pts▲ SEA
QB INT rate edge-0.35 pts▼ CHI
pdm_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ SEA
away_pdl_matchup_17-0.31 pts▼ CHI
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.25 pts▼ CHI
Rest
8d
11d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
46.5
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.