2026 Week 9 Projections

15 games · 10,000 simulations each · generated Nov 03, 2026
DateMatchupQBs Proj score Favorite Home win Total Market Edge
11-05 JAX JAX at BAL BAL Trevor Lawrence / Tyler Huntley 23.8 – 18.1 JAX 5.6 33% 41.9 -8.5 +2.9
11-08 ARI ARI at SEA SEA Gardner Minshew II / Sam Darnold 17.9 – 26.9 SEA 9.0 74% 44.8 +11.5 -2.5
11-08 CIN CIN at ATL ATL (neutral) Joe Burrow / Michael Penix Jr. 25.0 – 22.3 CIN 2.7 40% 47.3 -3.0 +0.3
11-08 CLE CLE at NO NO Deshaun Watson / Tyler Shough 17.2 – 23.1 NO 5.8 66% 40.3 +2.5 +3.3
11-08 DAL DAL at IND IND Dak Prescott / Daniel Jones 26.5 – 22.5 DAL 4.0 38% 49.1 -6.0 +2.0
11-08 DEN DEN at CAR CAR Bo Nix / Bryce Young 21.4 – 20.5 DEN 0.9 47% 41.9 -3.0 +2.1
11-08 DET DET at MIA MIA Jared Goff / Malik Willis 26.9 – 20.3 DET 6.6 30% 47.1 -7.0 +0.4
11-08 GB GB at NE NE Jordan Love / Drake Maye 19.3 – 26.0 NE 6.8 69% 45.3 +3.0 +3.8
11-08 HOU HOU at LAC LAC C.J. Stroud / Justin Herbert 24.3 – 17.8 HOU 6.5 34% 42.1 -4.5 -2.0
11-08 LA LA at WAS WAS Matthew Stafford / Jayden Daniels 27.5 – 20.2 LA 7.3 31% 47.7 -5.5 -1.8
11-08 LV LV at SF SF Kirk Cousins / Brock Purdy 18.7 – 27.8 SF 9.2 77% 46.5 +10.0 -0.8
11-08 NYG NYG at PHI PHI J.J. McCarthy / Tanner McKee 19.9 – 22.1 PHI 2.2 56% 42.1 -3.5 +5.7⚡ FADE
11-08 NYJ NYJ at KC KC Geno Smith / Patrick Mahomes 16.8 – 27.0 KC 10.1 79% 43.8 +9.5 +0.6
11-08 TB TB at CHI CHI Baker Mayfield / Caleb Williams 18.9 – 25.6 CHI 6.6 67% 44.5 +6.0 +0.6
11-09 BUF BUF at MIN MIN Josh Allen / Kyler Murray 21.6 – 21.5 BUF 0.2 49% 43.1 -3.5 +3.3

Market is the spread from the home team's perspective — positive means the home side is favored. Edge is the model's margin minus the market's; FADE marks the games where the two disagree on the winner.

JAX at BAL

JAX at BAL

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-05 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -27 to +14
BAL Win Prob
33.4%
JAX Win Prob
66.6%
Projected
18–24
Exp. Margin
-5.6
Exp. Total
41.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesBALJAX
EPA / play+0.026+0.092 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.037+0.211 ◀
Avg air yards8.1 yds9.0 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.8 yds ◀5.4 yds
Deep pass rate16.2%20.3% ◀
Pass rate44.6%49.8% ◀
Shotgun rate61.2% ◀58.1%
Rush EPA / carry+0.023 ◀-0.046
3rd down conv %39.0%45.6% ◀
Red zone TD %18.0%24.8% ◀
Turnover rate2.2%1.8% ◀
QB comp %60.4% ◀59.5%
QB YPA5.9 yds7.8 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed8.1%5.9% ◀
YPC (rush)4.9 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.012+0.147 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesBALJAX
EPA allowed / play-0.018-0.143 ◀
Air yds allowed8.1 yds7.8 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds3.6 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.0 yds4.2 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed17.7%16.7% ◀
Sack rate gen5.5%5.5% ◀
TO forced rate2.1%2.9% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed18.3% ◀18.3%
Trending — Last 8 GamesBALJAX
OFF EPA/play+0.012+0.147 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.048+0.269 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.086+0.034 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.012-0.061 ◀
Avg air yards7.9 yds8.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%37.7%49.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.8%1.5% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.108+0.270 ◀
Margin Model DriversBALJAX
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.61 pts▼ JAX
away_psr_matchup_17+1.44 pts▲ BAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.42 pts▼ JAX
run_right_succ_17-0.74 pts▼ JAX
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.71 pts▼ JAX
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.63 pts▼ JAX
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.55 pts▼ JAX
3rd & short conv edge-0.44 pts▼ JAX
away_pass_rate_17+0.40 pts▲ BAL
home_pass_rate_17+0.37 pts▲ BAL
Rest
4d
 
4d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-8.5
O/U
42.5
ARI at SEA

ARI at SEA

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -11 to +31
SEA Win Prob
74.1%
ARI Win Prob
25.9%
Projected
27–18
Exp. Margin
+9.0
Exp. Total
44.8
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSEAARI
EPA / play-0.007 ◀-0.041
QB EPA / att+0.021 ◀-0.046
Avg air yards6.9 yds7.2 yds ◀
Avg YAC5.8 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate13.3%14.8% ◀
Pass rate50.2%63.1% ◀
Shotgun rate49.7%66.7% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.105-0.058 ◀
3rd down conv %36.8%37.7% ◀
Red zone TD %17.3%19.6% ◀
Turnover rate2.2%2.0% ◀
QB comp %58.4%58.7% ◀
QB YPA6.7 yds ◀6.1 yds
Sack rate allowed6.8%6.1% ◀
YPC (rush)4.1 yds4.2 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.057-0.040 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSEAARI
EPA allowed / play-0.178 ◀+0.122
Air yds allowed6.8 yds ◀8.3 yds
YPC allowed3.8 yds ◀4.4 yds
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀6.0 yds
Deep rate allowed17.5% ◀18.5%
Sack rate gen6.1% ◀5.6%
TO forced rate3.1% ◀1.6%
RZ TD rate allowed27.1%23.2% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesSEAARI
OFF EPA/play-0.057-0.040 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.018 ◀-0.127
Rush EPA/carry-0.187-0.049 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.099 ◀+0.077
Avg air yards6.9 yds7.0 yds ◀
3rd down conv%33.3%37.9% ◀
Turnover rate3.1%1.7% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.047 ◀-0.051
Margin Model DriversSEAARI
Net EPA edge (L17)+2.77 pts▲ SEA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.90 pts▲ SEA
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.56 pts▼ ARI
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.51 pts▲ SEA
away_psm_matchup_17+0.40 pts▲ SEA
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.40 pts▲ SEA
pdm_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ SEA
away_pdl_matchup_17-0.35 pts▼ ARI
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ SEA
away_psr_matchup_17+0.30 pts▲ SEA
Rest
6d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+11.5
O/U
44.5
CIN at ATL

CIN at ATL

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -26 to +20
ATL Win Prob
40.3%
CIN Win Prob
59.7%
Projected
22–25
Exp. Margin
-2.7
Exp. Total
47.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesATLCIN
EPA / play-0.052+0.078 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.033+0.165 ◀
Avg air yards7.0 yds7.4 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.5 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate17.9% ◀15.1%
Pass rate49.4%60.8% ◀
Shotgun rate60.6%78.6% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.052-0.023 ◀
3rd down conv %31.4%49.9% ◀
Red zone TD %26.1%33.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.5%2.0% ◀
QB comp %57.9%67.0% ◀
QB YPA7.3 yds ◀7.0 yds
Sack rate allowed5.2%4.2% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds ◀4.1 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.099+0.093 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesATLCIN
EPA allowed / play-0.018 ◀+0.052
Air yds allowed8.5 yds8.2 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.2 yds ◀5.1 yds
YAC allowed4.8 yds ◀7.0 yds
Deep rate allowed19.5%16.8% ◀
Sack rate gen8.2% ◀7.8%
TO forced rate2.2%2.5% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed17.1%16.0% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesATLCIN
OFF EPA/play-0.099+0.093 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.067+0.165 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.069 ◀-0.087
DEF EPA allowed-0.038 ◀-0.017
Avg air yards6.6 yds7.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%33.6%52.7% ◀
Turnover rate3.2%2.1% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.180+0.169 ◀
Margin Model DriversATLCIN
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.95 pts▼ CIN
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.75 pts▼ CIN
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.72 pts▼ CIN
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.67 pts▼ CIN
home_pass_rate_17+0.50 pts▲ ATL
QB completion % edge-0.43 pts▼ CIN
psl_matchup_17+0.31 pts▲ ATL
psm_matchup_17-0.30 pts▼ CIN
pdm_matchup_17+0.28 pts▲ ATL
Sack rate gen edge+0.27 pts▲ ATL
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.0
O/U
52.5
CLE at NO

CLE at NO

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -14 to +26
NO Win Prob
65.6%
CLE Win Prob
34.4%
Projected
23–17
Exp. Margin
+5.8
Exp. Total
40.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNOCLE
EPA / play-0.069 ◀-0.148
QB EPA / att-0.005 ◀-0.086
Avg air yards7.8 yds ◀7.2 yds
Avg YAC4.5 yds6.1 yds ◀
Deep pass rate16.5% ◀14.7%
Pass rate57.3% ◀50.9%
Shotgun rate74.8% ◀72.0%
Rush EPA / carry-0.178-0.116 ◀
3rd down conv %41.5% ◀33.0%
Red zone TD %23.3% ◀14.5%
Turnover rate2.7% ◀2.7%
QB comp %62.6% ◀57.4%
QB YPA6.4 yds ◀5.9 yds
Sack rate allowed6.6% ◀9.7%
YPC (rush)3.5 yds3.8 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.057 ◀-0.080
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNOCLE
EPA allowed / play-0.047-0.066 ◀
Air yds allowed7.7 yds ◀7.9 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.6 yds
YAC allowed5.2 yds ◀5.8 yds
Deep rate allowed16.8% ◀17.2%
Sack rate gen7.7%7.9% ◀
TO forced rate2.0% ◀1.7%
RZ TD rate allowed18.6% ◀20.6%
Trending — Last 8 GamesNOCLE
OFF EPA/play-0.057 ◀-0.080
QB EPA/att-0.036 ◀-0.038
Rush EPA/carry-0.119 ◀-0.140
DEF EPA allowed+0.045-0.008 ◀
Avg air yards7.1 yds7.2 yds ◀
3rd down conv%41.0% ◀32.1%
Turnover rate3.0%2.3% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.037 ◀-0.074
Margin Model DriversNOCLE
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.67 pts▲ NO
run_left_matchup_17+1.07 pts▲ NO
away_pdm_matchup_17-1.05 pts▼ CLE
away_pdl_matchup_17+0.74 pts▲ NO
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.51 pts▼ CLE
pdl_matchup_17+0.42 pts▲ NO
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.40 pts▼ CLE
QB completion % edge+0.40 pts▲ NO
pdm_matchup_17-0.40 pts▼ CLE
psm_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ NO
Rest
14d
 
7d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+2.5
O/U
43.5
DAL at IND

DAL at IND

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -27 to +18
IND Win Prob
38.1%
DAL Win Prob
61.9%
Projected
23–26
Exp. Margin
-4.0
Exp. Total
49.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesINDDAL
EPA / play-0.099+0.071 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.048+0.152 ◀
Avg air yards7.3 yds8.5 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.7 yds4.9 yds ◀
Deep pass rate15.9%17.8% ◀
Pass rate54.1%57.3% ◀
Shotgun rate69.3% ◀62.2%
Rush EPA / carry-0.003 ◀-0.035
3rd down conv %39.1%43.2% ◀
Red zone TD %21.8% ◀19.9%
Turnover rate3.0%2.0% ◀
QB comp %59.2%61.3% ◀
QB YPA6.2 yds7.0 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.3%4.2% ◀
YPC (rush)3.9 yds4.1 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.123+0.098 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesINDDAL
EPA allowed / play+0.042 ◀+0.152
Air yds allowed8.6 yds8.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.7 yds
YAC allowed5.6 yds ◀5.8 yds
Deep rate allowed18.5%17.7% ◀
Sack rate gen5.3% ◀5.1%
TO forced rate1.3% ◀0.9%
RZ TD rate allowed21.5% ◀24.0%
Trending — Last 8 GamesINDDAL
OFF EPA/play-0.123+0.098 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.218+0.186 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.015 ◀-0.006
DEF EPA allowed+0.053 ◀+0.131
Avg air yards7.0 yds8.0 yds ◀
3rd down conv%37.9%48.5% ◀
Turnover rate2.9%1.4% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.256+0.193 ◀
Margin Model DriversINDDAL
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.39 pts▼ DAL
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.96 pts▼ DAL
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.86 pts▼ DAL
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.82 pts▼ DAL
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.77 pts▼ DAL
psl_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ IND
EPA/play edge (L17)-0.33 pts▼ DAL
Pass EPA/att edge (L8)+0.30 pts▲ IND
QB completion % edge-0.27 pts▼ DAL
DEF pass EPA allowed edge-0.25 pts▼ DAL
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
closed
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-6.0
O/U
51.5
DEN at CAR

DEN at CAR

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +19
CAR Win Prob
47.1%
DEN Win Prob
52.9%
Projected
20–21
Exp. Margin
-0.9
Exp. Total
41.9
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCARDEN
EPA / play-0.022-0.006 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.010+0.038 ◀
Avg air yards7.3 yds ◀5.9 yds
Avg YAC5.3 yds5.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate14.9% ◀14.4%
Pass rate56.4%57.2% ◀
Shotgun rate67.1% ◀65.9%
Rush EPA / carry-0.076-0.061 ◀
3rd down conv %36.0%36.8% ◀
Red zone TD %21.1%25.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.3%1.3% ◀
QB comp %57.1%59.4% ◀
QB YPA6.3 yds ◀6.0 yds
Sack rate allowed6.1%4.1% ◀
YPC (rush)4.0 yds ◀3.8 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.014 ◀-0.030
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCARDEN
EPA allowed / play+0.055-0.040 ◀
Air yds allowed7.6 yds ◀8.4 yds
YPC allowed4.3 yds ◀4.4 yds
YAC allowed4.7 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep rate allowed16.4% ◀17.2%
Sack rate gen4.7%7.4% ◀
TO forced rate2.5% ◀1.8%
RZ TD rate allowed25.2%17.9% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesCARDEN
OFF EPA/play+0.014 ◀-0.030
QB EPA/att+0.002 ◀-0.021
Rush EPA/carry-0.030 ◀-0.047
DEF EPA allowed+0.037-0.023 ◀
Avg air yards8.2 yds ◀5.4 yds
3rd down conv%40.1% ◀28.6%
Turnover rate1.8%1.2% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.011 ◀-0.031
Margin Model DriversCARDEN
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.08 pts▼ DEN
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.80 pts▼ DEN
away_psm_matchup_17-0.40 pts▼ DEN
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.38 pts▼ DEN
QB completion % edge-0.35 pts▼ DEN
Sack rate gen edge-0.33 pts▼ DEN
pdm_matchup_17+0.32 pts▲ CAR
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+0.28 pts▲ CAR
Turnover rate edge-0.27 pts▼ DEN
TO forced rate edge+0.26 pts▲ CAR
Rest
10d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.0
O/U
43.5
DET at MIA

DET at MIA

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -28 to +15
MIA Win Prob
30.1%
DET Win Prob
69.9%
Projected
20–27
Exp. Margin
-6.6
Exp. Total
47.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesMIADET
EPA / play-0.026+0.079 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.069+0.191 ◀
Avg air yards8.0 yds ◀6.9 yds
Avg YAC6.3 yds ◀6.0 yds
Deep pass rate17.7% ◀15.7%
Pass rate46.3%57.2% ◀
Shotgun rate62.3% ◀52.0%
Rush EPA / carry-0.056 ◀-0.082
3rd down conv %34.4%39.9% ◀
Red zone TD %21.1% ◀19.5%
Turnover rate2.3%1.3% ◀
QB comp %55.4%62.0% ◀
QB YPA6.8 yds7.5 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed7.9%6.0% ◀
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀4.5 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.094+0.120 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesMIADET
EPA allowed / play+0.076+0.069 ◀
Air yds allowed7.5 yds ◀9.8 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.3 yds
YAC allowed5.3 yds3.9 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed19.2% ◀21.7%
Sack rate gen5.2%7.2% ◀
TO forced rate1.9% ◀1.3%
RZ TD rate allowed28.1%22.3% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesMIADET
OFF EPA/play-0.094+0.120 ◀
QB EPA/att+0.018+0.245 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.061 ◀-0.076
DEF EPA allowed+0.175+0.092 ◀
Avg air yards8.8 yds ◀7.3 yds
3rd down conv%40.4%40.4% ◀
Turnover rate2.5%0.9% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.146+0.252 ◀
Margin Model DriversMIADET
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.25 pts▼ DET
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.12 pts▼ DET
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.96 pts▼ DET
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.86 pts▼ DET
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.59 pts▼ DET
home_pass_rate_17+0.58 pts▲ MIA
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.57 pts▼ DET
home_pace_17-0.47 pts▼ DET
pdm_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ DET
QB completion % edge-0.38 pts▼ DET
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-7.0
O/U
50.5
GB at NE

GB at NE

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -15 to +28
NE Win Prob
69.0%
GB Win Prob
31.0%
Projected
26–19
Exp. Margin
+6.8
Exp. Total
45.3
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesNEGB
EPA / play+0.072 ◀+0.059
QB EPA / att+0.133+0.171 ◀
Avg air yards9.6 yds ◀9.3 yds
Avg YAC5.2 yds ◀4.7 yds
Deep pass rate22.0%22.2% ◀
Pass rate49.1%55.4% ◀
Shotgun rate59.6%65.0% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.004 ◀-0.148
3rd down conv %39.4%42.4% ◀
Red zone TD %27.5% ◀18.6%
Turnover rate2.5%1.8% ◀
QB comp %61.5% ◀59.0%
QB YPA7.7 yds ◀6.8 yds
Sack rate allowed7.8%5.3% ◀
YPC (rush)4.6 yds ◀3.7 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.062 ◀+0.002
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesNEGB
EPA allowed / play-0.070 ◀+0.003
Air yds allowed7.4 yds7.1 yds ◀
YPC allowed3.9 yds ◀4.0 yds
YAC allowed4.9 yds ◀4.9 yds
Deep rate allowed15.2% ◀16.5%
Sack rate gen7.0% ◀5.8%
TO forced rate2.1%2.2% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed15.3% ◀18.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesNEGB
OFF EPA/play+0.062 ◀+0.002
QB EPA/att+0.127+0.137 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.056 ◀-0.263
DEF EPA allowed+0.015-0.065 ◀
Avg air yards9.0 yds9.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%39.3% ◀35.0%
Turnover rate3.1%2.2% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.140+0.140 ◀
Margin Model DriversNEGB
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.96 pts▲ NE
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.61 pts▲ NE
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.49 pts▼ GB
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.47 pts▲ NE
away_psm_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ NE
away_pace_17+0.38 pts▲ NE
QB completion % edge+0.34 pts▲ NE
pdm_matchup_17+0.34 pts▲ NE
away_pdr_matchup_17+0.33 pts▲ NE
DEF EPA allowed edge (L8)-0.25 pts▼ GB
Rest
7d
 
10d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+3.0
O/U
46.5
HOU at LAC

HOU at LAC

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -29 to +15
LAC Win Prob
33.8%
HOU Win Prob
66.2%
Projected
17–24
Exp. Margin
-6.5
Exp. Total
42.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesLACHOU
EPA / play-0.173-0.020 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.140+0.092 ◀
Avg air yards8.1 yds8.8 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.8 yds ◀4.6 yds
Deep pass rate15.5%18.0% ◀
Pass rate49.3%55.2% ◀
Shotgun rate71.4% ◀61.7%
Rush EPA / carry-0.107 ◀-0.135
3rd down conv %38.1%39.1% ◀
Red zone TD %17.1%24.4% ◀
Turnover rate2.7%1.2% ◀
QB comp %56.4%59.5% ◀
QB YPA6.2 yds6.9 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed10.1%4.4% ◀
YPC (rush)4.0 yds ◀3.6 yds
EPA / play (L8)-0.259-0.018 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesLACHOU
EPA allowed / play-0.107 ◀-0.096
Air yds allowed7.2 yds ◀8.2 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds3.8 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.9 yds5.0 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed13.5% ◀19.0%
Sack rate gen6.9%8.0% ◀
TO forced rate2.7% ◀2.4%
RZ TD rate allowed13.1% ◀29.0%
Trending — Last 8 GamesLACHOU
OFF EPA/play-0.259-0.018 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.301+0.063 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.191-0.156 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.042 ◀-0.010
Avg air yards7.5 yds9.4 yds ◀
3rd down conv%31.4%37.6% ◀
Turnover rate3.7%1.4% ◀
Pass EPA/att-0.343+0.056 ◀
Margin Model DriversLACHOU
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.49 pts▼ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.74 pts▼ HOU
Net EPA edge (L8)-1.04 pts▼ HOU
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.86 pts▼ HOU
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.83 pts▼ HOU
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.52 pts▼ HOU
DEF red zone TD% edge+0.46 pts▲ LAC
Pass EPA/att edge (L8)+0.34 pts▲ LAC
Yards/att edge-0.34 pts▼ HOU
QB INT rate edge-0.29 pts▼ HOU
Rest
7d
 
14d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-4.5
O/U
40.5
LA at WAS

LA at WAS

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -29 to +14
WAS Win Prob
30.6%
LA Win Prob
69.4%
Projected
20–28
Exp. Margin
-7.3
Exp. Total
47.7
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesWASLA
EPA / play-0.020+0.112 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.042+0.136 ◀
Avg air yards8.7 yds9.1 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.9 yds5.4 yds ◀
Deep pass rate20.0%22.4% ◀
Pass rate49.5%57.3% ◀
Shotgun rate77.5% ◀45.9%
Rush EPA / carry-0.019+0.040 ◀
3rd down conv %34.7%37.5% ◀
Red zone TD %21.4%24.9% ◀
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.0%
QB comp %57.8%61.6% ◀
QB YPA6.3 yds7.4 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed6.3%3.6% ◀
YPC (rush)4.5 yds4.9 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.012+0.035 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesWASLA
EPA allowed / play+0.137-0.017 ◀
Air yds allowed7.5 yds7.5 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.2 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.6 yds ◀6.1 yds
Deep rate allowed15.8% ◀17.3%
Sack rate gen6.0% ◀5.1%
TO forced rate1.6%1.8% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed26.8%16.9% ◀
Trending — Last 8 GamesWASLA
OFF EPA/play-0.012+0.035 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.100+0.035 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.053-0.030 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.018-0.111 ◀
Avg air yards8.8 yds ◀7.5 yds
3rd down conv%34.8%42.0% ◀
Turnover rate1.0% ◀2.4%
Pass EPA/att+0.015+0.043 ◀
Margin Model DriversWASLA
Net EPA edge (L17)-4.89 pts▼ LA
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.43 pts▼ LA
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.89 pts▼ LA
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.85 pts▼ LA
3rd & short conv edge-0.43 pts▼ LA
Sack rate gen edge+0.27 pts▲ WAS
pdm_matchup_17+0.24 pts▲ WAS
DEF EPA allowed edge (L17)-0.23 pts▼ LA
3rd & long conv edge-0.21 pts▼ LA
run_mid_matchup_17-0.21 pts▼ LA
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-5.5
O/U
47.5
LV at SF

LV at SF

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -12 to +31
SF Win Prob
76.5%
LV Win Prob
23.5%
Projected
28–18
Exp. Margin
+9.2
Exp. Total
46.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesSFLV
EPA / play+0.112 ◀-0.140
QB EPA / att+0.181 ◀+0.062
Avg air yards7.8 yds ◀6.9 yds
Avg YAC4.6 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate15.7% ◀14.1%
Pass rate53.1%57.0% ◀
Shotgun rate52.7%61.2% ◀
Rush EPA / carry-0.004 ◀-0.256
3rd down conv %51.3% ◀34.8%
Red zone TD %25.6% ◀19.4%
Turnover rate2.3%1.8% ◀
QB comp %65.0% ◀59.8%
QB YPA7.6 yds ◀6.6 yds
Sack rate allowed3.2% ◀8.0%
YPC (rush)4.3 yds ◀3.1 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.112 ◀+0.018
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesSFLV
EPA allowed / play+0.029+0.024 ◀
Air yds allowed7.1 yds ◀8.6 yds
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀4.4 yds
YAC allowed5.3 yds ◀5.5 yds
Deep rate allowed17.8% ◀19.4%
Sack rate gen4.5%6.4% ◀
TO forced rate1.6%2.1% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed22.0% ◀27.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesSFLV
OFF EPA/play+0.112 ◀+0.018
QB EPA/att+0.198 ◀+0.186
Rush EPA/carry+0.031 ◀-0.269
DEF EPA allowed-0.022 ◀+0.073
Avg air yards8.1 yds ◀8.0 yds
3rd down conv%51.5% ◀42.9%
Turnover rate2.5%1.6% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.190+0.203 ◀
Margin Model DriversSFLV
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.02 pts▲ SF
pdm_matchup_17-0.88 pts▼ LV
away_pdm_matchup_17+0.81 pts▲ SF
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.77 pts▲ SF
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.69 pts▲ SF
away_psm_matchup_17+0.69 pts▲ SF
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.62 pts▲ SF
Pass EPA/att edge (L17)+0.44 pts▲ SF
Turnover rate edge-0.43 pts▼ LV
psm_matchup_17-0.41 pts▼ LV
Rest
14d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+10.0
O/U
51.5
NYG at PHI

NYG at PHI

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -19 to +24
PHI Win Prob
56.2%
NYG Win Prob
43.8%
Projected
22–20
Exp. Margin
+2.2
Exp. Total
42.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesPHINYG
EPA / play-0.074+0.026 ◀
QB EPA / att-0.102 ◀-0.160
Avg air yards8.3 yds8.6 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.0 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep pass rate17.6%17.9% ◀
Pass rate54.6% ◀49.8%
Shotgun rate74.5% ◀68.8%
Rush EPA / carry-0.071+0.019 ◀
3rd down conv %37.2%40.6% ◀
Red zone TD %22.9% ◀21.6%
Turnover rate1.8%1.7% ◀
QB comp %57.4% ◀53.2%
QB YPA5.5 yds6.3 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed5.4% ◀8.2%
YPC (rush)4.0 yds4.3 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.132+0.016 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesPHINYG
EPA allowed / play-0.025 ◀+0.071
Air yds allowed8.1 yds8.0 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.1 yds ◀5.2 yds
YAC allowed5.6 yds5.1 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed16.9% ◀19.3%
Sack rate gen5.4%5.9% ◀
TO forced rate1.7%2.0% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed17.5% ◀29.7%
Trending — Last 8 GamesPHINYG
OFF EPA/play-0.132+0.016 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.102-0.057 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.106-0.051 ◀
DEF EPA allowed+0.101-0.000 ◀
Avg air yards7.1 yds9.0 yds ◀
3rd down conv%35.1%44.0% ◀
Turnover rate1.7% ◀2.2%
Pass EPA/att-0.175+0.069 ◀
Margin Model DriversPHINYG
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.91 pts▼ NYG
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.89 pts▼ NYG
QB INT rate edge+0.69 pts▲ PHI
away_psm_matchup_17+0.44 pts▲ PHI
QB completion % edge+0.42 pts▲ PHI
run_right_matchup_17+0.42 pts▲ PHI
Net EPA edge (L17)-0.34 pts▼ NYG
pdm_matchup_17+0.31 pts▲ PHI
away_pdr_matchup_17-0.26 pts▼ NYG
psm_matchup_17-0.24 pts▼ NYG
Rest
7d
 
14d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.5
O/U
40.5
NYJ at KC

NYJ at KC

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -10 to +31
KC Win Prob
79.2%
NYJ Win Prob
20.8%
Projected
26–16
Exp. Margin
+10.1
Exp. Total
43.8
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesKCNYJ
EPA / play+0.001 ◀-0.096
QB EPA / att+0.128 ◀-0.048
Avg air yards6.9 yds7.1 yds ◀
Avg YAC6.5 yds ◀5.1 yds
Deep pass rate17.2% ◀14.6%
Pass rate55.7% ◀50.4%
Shotgun rate72.9% ◀64.0%
Rush EPA / carry+0.022 ◀-0.098
3rd down conv %35.1% ◀34.4%
Red zone TD %16.1% ◀11.6%
Turnover rate1.6% ◀2.0%
QB comp %60.7% ◀60.6%
QB YPA7.1 yds ◀6.4 yds
Sack rate allowed6.5% ◀8.5%
YPC (rush)4.4 yds ◀4.0 yds
EPA / play (L8)+0.042 ◀+0.041
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesKCNYJ
EPA allowed / play-0.030 ◀+0.100
Air yds allowed6.4 yds ◀7.5 yds
YPC allowed3.6 yds ◀4.1 yds
YAC allowed5.6 yds5.5 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed15.5% ◀17.0%
Sack rate gen4.7%5.4% ◀
TO forced rate1.7% ◀0.9%
RZ TD rate allowed17.6% ◀22.5%
Trending — Last 8 GamesKCNYJ
OFF EPA/play+0.042 ◀+0.041
QB EPA/att+0.105+0.120 ◀
Rush EPA/carry+0.024 ◀-0.100
DEF EPA allowed-0.103 ◀+0.015
Avg air yards6.1 yds7.7 yds ◀
3rd down conv%36.3% ◀34.5%
Turnover rate1.3%1.2% ◀
Pass EPA/att+0.030+0.120 ◀
Margin Model DriversKCNYJ
Net EPA edge (L17)+3.27 pts▲ KC
away_pdl_matchup_17+1.00 pts▲ KC
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-0.73 pts▼ NYJ
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+0.67 pts▲ KC
Net EPA edge (L8)+0.67 pts▲ KC
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)+0.58 pts▲ KC
Pass EPA/att edge (L8)+0.42 pts▲ KC
away_pace_17+0.37 pts▲ KC
run_mid_matchup_17-0.35 pts▼ NYJ
psr_matchup_17-0.33 pts▼ NYJ
Rest
7d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+9.5
O/U
46.5
TB at CHI

TB at CHI

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-08 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -15 to +28
CHI Win Prob
67.4%
TB Win Prob
32.6%
Projected
25–19
Exp. Margin
+6.6
Exp. Total
44.5
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesCHITB
EPA / play+0.072 ◀-0.056
QB EPA / att+0.128 ◀-0.172
Avg air yards8.2 yds ◀7.4 yds
Avg YAC5.2 yds5.6 yds ◀
Deep pass rate20.4% ◀17.4%
Pass rate52.3% ◀46.5%
Shotgun rate54.3%64.5% ◀
Rush EPA / carry+0.004+0.021 ◀
3rd down conv %44.5% ◀42.7%
Red zone TD %17.8%18.2% ◀
Turnover rate2.0% ◀2.4%
QB comp %56.5% ◀54.4%
QB YPA6.7 yds ◀5.6 yds
Sack rate allowed4.1% ◀7.5%
YPC (rush)4.3 yds4.5 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)+0.063 ◀-0.089
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesCHITB
EPA allowed / play+0.010-0.021 ◀
Air yds allowed8.5 yds7.7 yds ◀
YPC allowed4.5 yds4.1 yds ◀
YAC allowed5.4 yds ◀6.1 yds
Deep rate allowed18.1%16.3% ◀
Sack rate gen6.8% ◀4.4%
TO forced rate2.1%2.7% ◀
RZ TD rate allowed19.2% ◀24.1%
Trending — Last 8 GamesCHITB
OFF EPA/play+0.063 ◀-0.089
QB EPA/att+0.181 ◀-0.193
Rush EPA/carry-0.047+0.012 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.039-0.159 ◀
Avg air yards7.4 yds ◀7.3 yds
3rd down conv%43.9% ◀40.2%
Turnover rate2.5% ◀2.8%
Pass EPA/att+0.141 ◀-0.377
Margin Model DriversCHITB
QB EPA/att edge (L17)+1.49 pts▲ CHI
Net EPA edge (L17)+1.49 pts▲ CHI
QB EPA/att edge (L8)+1.06 pts▲ CHI
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.58 pts▼ TB
Net EPA edge (L8)-0.51 pts▼ TB
pdm_matchup_17+0.39 pts▲ CHI
away_run_left_matchup_17-0.37 pts▼ TB
Rush EPA/carry edge (L17)-0.34 pts▼ TB
Sack rate gen edge+0.32 pts▲ CHI
DEF EPA allowed edge (L8)-0.31 pts▼ TB
Rest
6d
 
7d
Venue
outdoors
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
+6.0
O/U
46.5
BUF at MIN

BUF at MIN

2026 Week 9 · 2026-11-09 · 10,000 simulations · 90% margin range -22 to +22
MIN Win Prob
49.4%
BUF Win Prob
50.6%
Projected
21–21
Exp. Margin
-0.2
Exp. Total
43.1
Offense — Trailing 17 GamesMINBUF
EPA / play-0.120+0.150 ◀
QB EPA / att+0.015+0.151 ◀
Avg air yards7.6 yds7.8 yds ◀
Avg YAC4.7 yds6.6 yds ◀
Deep pass rate18.8% ◀17.9%
Pass rate48.6% ◀48.2%
Shotgun rate55.7% ◀47.8%
Rush EPA / carry-0.060+0.071 ◀
3rd down conv %32.0%45.9% ◀
Red zone TD %21.1%22.9% ◀
Turnover rate2.5%2.4% ◀
QB comp %62.4% ◀62.0%
QB YPA6.1 yds7.5 yds ◀
Sack rate allowed9.6%5.9% ◀
YPC (rush)4.4 yds4.8 yds ◀
EPA / play (L8)-0.091+0.164 ◀
Defense — Trailing 17 GamesMINBUF
EPA allowed / play-0.174 ◀-0.014
Air yds allowed6.8 yds ◀7.4 yds
YPC allowed4.0 yds ◀4.3 yds
YAC allowed5.4 yds4.8 yds ◀
Deep rate allowed14.1% ◀17.2%
Sack rate gen10.1% ◀4.5%
TO forced rate2.6% ◀2.2%
RZ TD rate allowed10.3% ◀21.5%
Trending — Last 8 GamesMINBUF
OFF EPA/play-0.091+0.164 ◀
QB EPA/att-0.063+0.210 ◀
Rush EPA/carry-0.168+0.070 ◀
DEF EPA allowed-0.199 ◀+0.035
Avg air yards7.7 yds9.1 yds ◀
3rd down conv%32.7%46.1% ◀
Turnover rate1.3% ◀3.0%
Pass EPA/att-0.051+0.221 ◀
Margin Model DriversMINBUF
QB EPA/att edge (L8)-1.51 pts▼ BUF
away_psr_matchup_17+1.34 pts▲ MIN
Net EPA edge (L17)-1.14 pts▼ BUF
away_pdm_matchup_17-0.76 pts▼ BUF
QB EPA/att edge (L17)-0.70 pts▼ BUF
away_psl_matchup_17+0.61 pts▲ MIN
home_pass_rate_17+0.50 pts▲ MIN
EPA/play edge (L8)-0.45 pts▼ BUF
pdm_matchup_17+0.38 pts▲ MIN
DEF red zone TD% edge+0.35 pts▲ MIN
Rest
8d
 
8d
Venue
dome
Temp
65°F
Wind
5 mph
Spread
-3.5
O/U
45.5
Download week 9 projections (CSV)
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.