2026 · Week 8 · Oct 29–Nov 2
14 games, simulated 10,000 times each.
A play-by-play NFL simulator, scored against the market in public. Every projection is published before kickoff and graded against the closing line afterwards — including the weeks it gets wrong.
See week 8 projections Track recordWhere the model disagrees most with the market week 8
| Matchup | Projected | Home win | Close | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 PHI at  WAS |
21.3–20.6 | 47% | +6.0 | -6.8 |
 CHI at  SEA |
20.0–27.0 | 69% | +3.0 | +4.1 |
 IND at  JAX |
15.1–28.4 | 85% | +10.0 | +3.4 |
 LAC at  LA |
18.4–27.8 | 75% | +6.5 | +2.9 |
 ATL at  TB |
21.0–21.1 | 49% | +2.5 | -2.4 |
Edge is the model's projected home margin minus the market's. A big edge is the model making a claim, not a tip — on the 2025 holdout the closing line was still the more accurate of the two.
Scored on 2025, out of sample
Games
272
never used for tuning
Winner picked
66.5%
market 65.4%
Margin MAE
10.06
market 9.72
90% interval
89.0%
target 90%
The full breakdown, season by season and game by game, is on the track record page.
Published weeks
Week 1resultWeek 2resultWeek 3resultWeek 4resultWeek 5resultWeek 6resultWeek 7resultWeek 8projections
Model output, not advice. These are simulated distributions from a statistical model, published to record how it performs. Nothing here is a betting recommendation. Lines shown are the closing numbers carried in the underlying data and may differ from any book. 21+; if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-522-4700.
Every Possible Sunday — built Oct 29, 2026. Play-by-play and lines from nflfastR via nfl_data_py. Team marks belong to their owners and are used here to identify clubs.